arXiv:2607.01891v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Information Systems research increasingly relies on machine learning (ML) to predict outcomes in complex sociotechnical systems, yet predictive models are not designed to identify causal effects. This limitation is particularly critical in building retrofits, where unbiased estimates of energy savings are essential for climate policy and investment decisions. Because retrofit adoption is shaped by household and building characteristics that also affect energy consumption, predictive ML can yield biased effect estimates. This paper systematically benchmarks leading causal ML estimators, including metalearners (S-, T- and X-Learners) and DoubleML across multiple retrofit interventions. To enable this comparison, we construct a physically grounded simulation in which true treatment effects and realistic adoption biases are known. Results show that DoubleML achieves the lowest estimation errors, particularly for complex envelope retrofits. These findings demonstrate that orthogonalising the treatment assignment improves causal effect estimation and provides a methodological foundation for large-scale energy retrofit and policy evaluation.
Science Journals
arXiv:2607.02352v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Smart metasurfaces capable of employing the momentum of light for manipulating nanoparticles hold the key to potential applications in science and nanotechnology. This article proposes a density-based topology optimization framework for optimizing plasmonic metasurfaces for nanoparticles optical trapping. The Maxwell stress tensor (MST) is employed to compute the optical force exerted on nanoparticles of different sizes and types. The metasurfaces' topologies are optimized to maximize the gradient (attractive) force on such nanoparticles subject to normally incident monochromatic excitation. Designs based on free-form optimization are investigated first, then manufacturing constraints are imposed to provide easy-to-manufacture planar designs. The results show that the topology of the optimized metasurfaces depends on the nanoparticle size and material, with a higher trapping stiffness associated with small nanoparticles. The optimized metasurfaces could offer selective mass trapping of nanoparticles for applications in biosensing, microfabrication, or assembly of quantum systems.
arXiv:2607.02195v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: General-purpose vision-language-action models benefit from large vision-language priors, but effective manipulation also requires anticipating action-relevant scene changes. Existing world-action models often rely on large generative world models or dense future rollouts, which are expensive and spend capacity on visual details weakly coupled to control. We present Bridge-WA, a lightweight world-action framework that distills a frozen future-change teacher into three compact priors: future tokens for intended outcomes, change maps for intervention support, and motion-flow maps for local transition direction. A WorldBridge conditions the action transformer on these priors through multi-source attention memories and spatial-temporal biases, while the teacher model is removed at inference. Across VLABench, RoboTwin2.0, LIBERO-Plus and real-robot evaluations, Bridge-WA improves task success, progress, and robustness, with particularly clear gains under out-of-distribution visual shifts. By focusing action generation on where and how the scene will change, Bridge-WA suppresses nuisance appearance factors such as background, lighting, and distractors, leading to better generalization without deployment-time dense future-image generation. Code and visualizations are available at: https://hcplab-sysu.github.io/BRIDGE-WA .
arXiv:2411.16956v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As global life expectancy increases, so does the burden of chronic diseases, yet individuals exhibit considerable variability in the rate at which they age. Identifying biomarkers that distinguish fast from slow ageing is crucial for understanding the biology of ageing, enabling early disease detection, and improving prevention strategies. Using contrastive deep learning, we show that skin biopsy images alone are sufficient to determine an individual's age. We then use visual features in histopathology slides of the skin biopsies to construct a novel biomarker of ageing. By linking with comprehensive health registers in Denmark, we demonstrate that visual features in histopathology slides of skin biopsies predict mortality and the prevalence of chronic age-related diseases. Our work highlights how routinely collected health data can provide additional value when used together with deep learning, by creating a new biomarker for ageing which can be actively used to determine mortality over time.
arXiv:2412.02908v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present explicit representations in terms of hypergeometric functions for the scaling functions in the $C^0$ orthogonal multiresolution analyses associated with piecewise continuous polynomials. Closed formulas for the Mellin transform of these functions as well as their Fourier transforms are derived. Some new multiresolution analyses whose scaling functions have coefficients that are rational numbers are introduced and discussed.
arXiv:2512.13092v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop a systematic extension of mode-coupling theory (MCT) that incorporates critical dynamical fluctuations. Starting from a microscopic diagrammatic theory, we identify dominant classes of divergent diagrams near the mode-coupling transition and show that the corresponding asymptotic series dominates the mean-field below an upper critical dimension $d_c=8$. To resum these divergences, we construct a mapping to a stochastic dynamical process in which the order parameter evolves under random spatiotemporal fields. This reformulation provides a controlled, fully dynamical derivation of an effective theory for the $\beta$-relaxation which remarkably coincides with stochastic beta-relaxation theory [T. Rizzo, EPL 106, 56003 (2014)]. All coupling constants of the latter theory are expressed microscopically in terms of the liquid static structure factor and are computed for the paradigmatic hard-sphere system. The analysis demonstrates that fluctuations alone restore ergodicity and replace the putative mean-field transition by a smooth crossover. Our results establish a predictive framework for structural relaxation beyond mean-field.
arXiv:2601.21402v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In recent years, Text-to-Audio Generation has achieved remarkable progress, offering sound creators powerful tools to transform textual inspirations into vivid audio. However, existing models predominantly operate directly in the acoustic latent space of a Variational Autoencoder (VAE), often leading to suboptimal alignment between generated audio and textual descriptions. In this paper, we introduce SemanticAudio, a novel framework that conducts both audio generation and editing directly in a high-level semantic space. We define this semantic space as a compact representation capturing the global identity and temporal sequence of sound events, distinct from fine-grained acoustic details. SemanticAudio employs a two-stage Flow Matching architecture: the Semantic Planner first generates these compact semantic features to sketch the global semantic layout, and the Acoustic Synthesizer subsequently produces high-fidelity acoustic latents conditioned on this semantic plan. Leveraging this decoupled design, we further introduce a training-free text-guided editing mechanism that enables precise attribute-level modifications on general audio without retraining. Specifically, this is achieved by steering the semantic generation trajectory via the difference of velocity fields derived from source and target text prompts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SemanticAudio surpasses existing mainstream approaches in semantic alignment. Demo available at: https://semanticaudio1.github.io/
arXiv:2607.02286v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper concerns the three-dimensional forward and inverse acoustic obstacle scattering problem in the time domain. For the forward problem, a retarded potential formulation discretized by convolution quadrature and Galerkin methods is introduced. By introducing the retarded boundary integral defined on a homothetic surface, we propose a novel time-domain convolution quadrature based iterative method to reconstruct both the shape and location of a rigid obstacle. The retarded integral in the time domain is reformulated into a system of integrals in the s-domain. The resulting s-domain integrals are very fast to compute, as they only involve non-singular integrals over the homothetic surfaces. Moreover, the Fr\'echet derivative with respect to the boundary can be derived straightforwardly. We also prove that the scattered field generated by the homothetic surface converges to the exact field in the time domain. To improve the stability of the inversion algorithm, an incremental truncation technique is proposed, and numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness and robustness of our method.
arXiv:2607.02298v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Autonomous drones are rapidly transforming modern warfare and civil applications alike. This paper presents the development of an integrated intelligent drone system designed to serve as a personal assistant. Leveraging the DJI Tello drone platform, we implemented a modular architecture that integrates three core artificial intelligence functionalities: facial detection, facial recognition, and depth estimation from monocular vision. A web-based interface enables seamless drone control and real-time video monitoring, while a Python-based server processes visual data and executes inference pipelines using lightweight neural models optimized for embedded systems. Unlike existing commercial solutions, this system emphasizes accessibility, low-cost hardware, and open-source technologies. The system demonstrates robust performance in real-world conditions, including person tracking, indoor scanning, and autonomous line following using virtual sensors. This project validates the applicability of advanced AI techniques in real-time robotic systems and illustrates the feasibility of deploying them on constrained hardware, providing a foundation for future research in autonomous UAVs for military, rescue, and surveillance missions.
arXiv:2512.23128v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Web-based agents powered by large language models are increasingly used for tasks such as email management or professional networking. Their reliance on dynamic web content, however, makes them vulnerable to prompt injection attacks: adversarial instructions hidden in interface elements that persuade the agent to divert from its original task. We introduce the Task-Redirecting Agent Persuasion Benchmark (TRAP), a benchmark for studying how persuasion techniques misguide autonomous web agents on realistic tasks. Across six frontier models, agents are susceptible to prompt injection in 25% of tasks on average (13% for GPT-5 to 43% for DeepSeek-R1), with small interface or contextual changes often doubling success rates and revealing systemic, psychologically driven vulnerabilities in web-based agents. We also provide a modular social-engineering injection framework with controlled experiments on high-fidelity website clones, allowing for further benchmark expansion.
arXiv:2607.02361v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In today's data-driven world, students often struggle with interpreting visualisations due to limited visualisation literacy. Data comics have emerged as a promising medium to enhance engagement and understanding, but their educational value has seen little empirical examination, partly due to the effort required to create them. Recent advances in Generative AI (GenAI) offer a scalable solution to this challenge. We conducted a within-subjects study with 60 university students, comparing conventional visualisations with data comics, created with assistance from GenAI tools, across information retrieval and comprehension tasks. Students consistently performed better with data comics, particularly in insight comprehension tasks, independent of prior visualisation literacy. Students also commented data comics as more engaging and easier to understand, though concerns were raised about GenAI-driven misinformation and ownership. Our findings highlight the potential of data comics as a potentially effective tool for data communication in education, while underscoring the need to address ethical concerns related to AI-assisted creation.
arXiv:2606.31737v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper investigates dynamic scheduling for flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs) subject to dynamic events, such as new order arrivals, temporary order cancellations, and machine failures. Traditional methods often face significant challenges in achieving real-time responsiveness under such conditions. To address this issue, the scheduling problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) with timed Petri nets, where the future evolution of the system depends exclusively on the current marking and the subsequently executed transitions, independent of historical trajectories. The state space and action space of the MDP are constructed using the notion of basis reachability graph (a compact state space representation) of Petri nets to alleviate the state explosion problem, thereby accelerating model training convergence. Meanwhile, a hierarchical dense reward function is constructed by integrating stepwise guidance with terminal evaluation. Then, a multi-agent proximal policy optimization algorithm is employed for model training under the centralized training and decentralized execution paradigm to improve scheduling efficiency. Numerical experiments are conducted involving typical dynamic events, and the results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively handle dynamic events and achieve superior scheduling performance compared with conventional approaches.
arXiv:2602.23561v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Symbolic regression (SR) has gained recent traction in AI-driven scientific discovery for learning closed-form physical laws. Yet existing methods are dominated by heuristic search or data-intensive approaches that often assume low-noise regimes and lack principled uncertainty quantification, while fully probabilistic SR formulations remain scarce. We introduce a scalable probabilistic framework for SR, VaSST, based on variational inference. VaSST uses soft symbolic trees, a continuous relaxation of symbolic expression trees in which discrete operator and feature assignments are replaced by probability distributions over allowable components. This transforms combinatorial symbolic search through an astronomically large expression space into efficient gradient-based optimization while preserving a coherent probabilistic interpretation. The learned soft representations induce posterior distributions over symbolic structures, enabling uncertainty quantification across plausible symbolic forms through posterior-aware symbolic model selection. On simulated experiments and the Feynman Symbolic Regression Database, VaSST achieves strong structural recovery and predictive accuracy compared to state-of-the-art competing SR methods.
arXiv:2603.07341v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: An efficient method of solving the time-dependent Schr\"odinger equation for pure states is described: At each timestep, a restricted subspace of the total Hilbert space is systematically and naturally constructed via the image of repeated applications of the Hamiltonian operator, and the time evolution is computed exactly within said subspace. The subspace is dynamically recomputed such that it co-evolves with the state vector. The method is built from the ground up as a parallel algorithm for graphics processing units and suited to Hamiltonians that are sparse in a given basis. We benchmark the method by comparing its results for a 1D Holstein model to previously published multiset-MPS results, and then apply the method to compute optical spectra and non-equilibrium dynamics of one-, two- and three-dimensional model chromophore nanoaggregates.
arXiv:2607.02052v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in software engineering tasks, such as code generation, library recommendation, and dependency configuration. However, recent studies show that LLMs may suffer from package hallucination, where they generate non-existent or invalid package names. These hallucinations can be exploited in software supply chain attacks, as attackers may register malicious packages under hallucinated names. Therefore, mitigating package hallucination is important for improving the reliability and security of LLM-assisted software development. In this paper, we introduce BOUND, a lightweight localized model editing framework for mitigating package hallucinations in LLMs. BOUND formulates package hallucination mitigation as a package-validity boundary editing problem, where the boundary refers to the model's ability to distinguish valid packages from hallucinated package names under a given task context. It first locates modules related to package hallucination through a risk-aware localization strategy, and then edits these modules with lightweight LoRA adapters using a boundary-aware objective that reinforces valid packages, suppresses hallucinated packages, and preserves locality behavior. Experimental results show that BOUND effectively reduces package hallucinations while preserving valid package recommendations. In the package recommendation task, BOUND reduces package-level hallucination rate (Package-HR) by 79.9% on edit prompts and by 65.4% on unseen prompts. The learned package-validity boundary further generalizes to other package-related tasks, reducing Package-HR by 12.8% in code generation and by 34.0% in pip install recommendation. These results show that BOUND refines the package-validity boundary of LLMs and improves the reliability of package-related outputs.
arXiv:2607.01952v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate 4D whole-heart mesh reconstruction from sparse cine MRI is critical for creating cardiac digital twins, but remains challenging due to limited 2D slice coverage and the complex coupling between cardiac shape and motion. Existing methods often rely on intermediate contour fitting and typically reconstruct static, single-phase, or partial cardiac geometries, limiting their ability to capture full-chamber dynamics. We propose a novel end-to-end framework for reconstructing temporally resolved whole-heart meshes from multi-view 2D cine MRI sequences by learning an image-to-mesh mapping. The framework incorporates a differentiable contour renderer inspired by the Beer-Lambert attenuation principle, enabling anatomy-aware supervision of 3D+t mesh deformation through contour-based projection losses. To improve temporal consistency across the cardiac cycle, we further introduce a multi-scale temporal modeling module that integrates global cycle-level dynamics with local inter-frame coherence to generate smooth and physiologically plausible mesh trajectories. The proposed method achieved a whole-heart mean absolute error of 1.68 $\pm$ 0.31 mm and a motion jitter of 0.77 $\pm$ 0.17 $\mathrm{mm}/\mathrm{frame}^{3}$, outperforming existing methods with lower reconstruction error and substantially improved motion smoothness. It also improved 2D contour alignment across multiple cine MRI views and supported downstream proof-of-concept electrophysiological simulation. The code will be released publicly upon acceptance of the manuscript for publication.
arXiv:2605.17984v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quasi-bimodal objects, such as text, road signs, and barcodes, play a basic yet vital role in daily visual communication. By boiling these down to clear silhouettes, binarization uses a minimal language to convey essential vision cues for maximum downstream efficiency, especially for tasks that require simple geometric, topological reasoning rather than heavy appearance modeling. The catch is that frame-based imaging often struggles on mobile platforms like drones, self-driving cars, and underwater vehicles, in which rapid motion causes severe motion blur and harsh lighting washes out scene details. To overcome these physical limits, neuromorphic vision via event cameras, featuring microsecond time resolution and high dynamic range, steps in as a natural solution. Building upon this event-driven paradigm, we propose a simple yet effective dual-modal approach that harnesses the synergy between frames and events for training-free, real-time, high-frame-rate binarization on CPU-only devices. Extensive evaluations show that it earns competitive performance against leading techniques in reducing blur artifacts and delivers impressive improvements under challenging illumination at a lower computational cost. Besides, its asynchronous nature bypasses long-standing event-scarcity issues that break traditional time-binning reconstruction at fixed time slots, maintaining clear target shapes even at extreme kilohertz frame rates. Its binary results further serve as reliable representations to facilitate a range of downstream tasks. This work paves the way towards lightweight perception and interaction in embodied intelligence on resource-constrained edge platforms.
arXiv:2602.00722v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Parameter-efficient continual learning aims to adapt pre-trained models to sequential tasks without forgetting previously acquired knowledge. Most existing approaches treat continual learning as avoiding interference with past updates, rather than considering what properties make the current task-specific update naturally preserve previously acquired knowledge. From a knowledge-decomposition perspective, we observe that low-rank adaptations exhibit highly imbalanced singular value spectra: a few dominant components absorb most of the adaptation energy, thereby (i) more likely to disrupt previously acquired knowledge and (ii) making the update more vulnerable to interference from subsequent tasks. To enable explicit balance among components, we decouple the magnitude of the task update from its directional structure and formulate it as a constrained optimization problem on a restricted Stiefel manifold. We address this problem using a projected first-order method compatible with standard deep-learning optimizers used in vision-language models. Our method mitigates both backward and forward forgetting, consistently outperforming continual learning baselines. The implementation code is available at https://github.com/haodotgu/EBLoRA.
arXiv:2607.01810v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Open-source projects depend on a steady inflow of newcomers. A growing concern is that AI coding agents (tools such as Cursor and Claude Code that write code from natural-language instructions) will crowd them out, by absorbing the simple tasks that beginners start with and by making code harder to read. We give this concern a causal answer. Using GitHub code search we identify 1,888 projects that adopted an agent, signaled by their first commit of a configuration file. We apply difference-in-differences against matched non-adopting controls, restricting the main analysis to the 603 adopters with a genuine pre-adoption period. We find no evidence of crowding-out: across estimators newcomer inflow shows no significant decline after adoption (point estimates run from a small increase to, under the most conservative trend specification, a slight and insignificant dip), onboarding and retention are unchanged, and a sparse, correlational beginner-task measure (good-first-issue labels, which we cannot test for parallel trends) shows no decline. The feared mechanism is real but decoupled: adoption raises per-function code complexity (about +11% on a cognitive metric for Python, a quarter of the prior estimate, and +3 to 4% in cyclomatic terms across all languages), yet in fixed-unit subsets where complexity rose (Python on the cognitive metric, and all languages on the cyclomatic metric), newcomer participation does not decline. These results suggest that, in established open-source projects, adopting an AI coding agent makes code modestly more complex but does not crowd out the human newcomers that a project depends on: the feared trade-off between AI assistance and human participation does not materialize.
arXiv:2511.08313v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a concept for a cryogenic source of atomic tritium at sub-Kelvin temperatures and energies suitable for magnetic trapping. The source is based on the dissociation of solid molecular T2 films below 1 K by electrons from a pulsed RF discharge, a technique recently demonstrated for atomic hydrogen, combined with buffer-gas cooling and magnetic confinement. We analyze the key processes limiting the source performance, adsorption, spin exchange and recombination, and show that atomic tritium fluxes exceeding 1e15 1/s at kinetic energies of 100 mK can be achieved at the entrance to the magnetic trap. Such a source would enable Doppler-free two-photon 1S-2S spectroscopy in atomic tritium for high-precision measurements of the triton charge radius, providing a crucial benchmark for bound-state QED and improving the comparison between electronic, muonic, and scattering determinations of nuclear sizes in light systems. Beyond spectroscopy, an atomic tritium source avoids molecular final state broadening in the beta decay and is therefore necessary for next generation neutrino mass measurements; combined with detector technologies such as sub-eV resolution quantum sensors or cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy, it enables an order of magnitude improvement compared to the current best experimental limit. Additionally, the source can be used to generate a beam of low field seeking deuterium atoms for loading magnetic traps, an important benchmark before trapping tritium atoms, which is useful for precision spectroscopy.
arXiv:2604.19791v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Attitude change - the process by which individuals revise their evaluative stances - has been explained by a set of influential but competing verbal theories. These accounts often function as mechanism sketches: rich in conceptual detail, yet lacking the technical specifications and operational constraints required to run as executable systems. We present a generative actor-based modelling workflow for "rendering" these sketches as runnable actor - environment simulations using the Concordia simulation library. In Concordia, actors operate by predictive pattern completion: an operation on natural language strings that generates a suffix which describes the actor's intended action from a prefix containing memories of their past and observations of the present. We render the theories of cognitive dissonance (Festinger 1957), self-consistency (Aronson 1969), and self-perception (Bem 1972) as distinct decision logics that populate and process the prefix through theory-specific sequences of reasoning steps. We evaluate these implementations across classic psychological experiments. Our implementations generate behavioural patterns consistent with known results from the original empirical literature. However, we find that achieving stable reproduction requires resolving the inherent underdetermination of the verbal accounts and the conflicts between modern linguistic priors and historical experimental assumptions. We document how this manual process of iterative model "stabilisation" surfaces specific operational and socio-ecological dependencies that were largely undocumented in the original verbal accounts. Ultimately, we argue that the manual stabilisation process itself should be regarded as a core part of the methodology functioning to clarify situational and representational commitments needed to generate characteristic effects.
arXiv:2604.21412v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Incident monitoring can drive safety improvements in high-reliability industries and population-scale technologies, but remains underdeveloped in AI governance. Public databases catalog thousands of AI incidents, but simple incident counts conflate media reporting propensity, system deployment ("exposure"), and harm frequency per unit exposure. We propose a methodological framework that accounts for these factors and calibrates confidence to available evidence in analyzing how AI incidents change over time. The framework comprises three components: a structured monitoring question that defines the scope of the analysis; a tiered estimation process that separately derives harm and exposure trends, including through LLM-assisted filtering of public incident databases; and a classification scheme that maps the resulting trend estimates onto actionable governance categories (Escalating, Mitigating, Concentrating, Receding or Unclassifiable). Through case studies, we examine the framework's clarifying power and limitations, demonstrate governance insight despite real-world data constraints, and provide a proof of concept for AI incident monitoring as a practical governance tool.
arXiv:2512.18368v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Scaling imitation learning to diverse multi-task robot manipulation remains challenging due to suboptimal demonstrations, behavioral multi-modality, and destructive interference across tasks. While skill-based methods offer a promising direction by decomposing behaviors into reusable abstractions, existing approaches often learn skills that are either biased toward linguistic structure or lack semantic alignment across tasks, limiting generalization. In this work, we propose AtomSkill, a novel framework that learns a semantically aligned Atomic Skill Space from demonstrations and enables robust long-horizon execution through keypose imagination. Our method introduces: (1) semantic contrastive skill alignment, which partitions demonstrations into variable-length atomic skills and employs a contrastive objective to jointly enforce semantic consistency and temporal coherence, yielding a compact and reusable skill library; and (2) action decoding with keypose imagining, where the policy predicts both a skill's terminal keypose and immediate actions, thereby supporting progress-aware skill transitions. During inference, an atomic skill diffusion sampler generates plausible skill sequences, while predicted keyposes autonomously trigger smooth skill chaining. Extensive experiments in simulation and real-world settings show that AtomSkill consistently outperforms state-of-the-art imitation learning and skill-based baselines. Project page: https://atom-skill.github.io.
arXiv:2602.16403v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Traditional models of slow slip events (SSEs) oversimplify fault geometry, although imaging shows subduction faults are segmented and complex. We examine how fault interactions control slip behavior using 3-D quasi-dynamic earthquake sequence simulations of two parallel faults with uniform rate-weakening friction accelerated by hierarchical matrices. Four regimes emerge-periodic earthquakes, coexisting SSEs and earthquakes, only SSEs, and complex sequences-whereas with the same friction condition a single planar fault produces only earthquakes. We quantify interaction using the maximum Coulomb stress induced on a target fault by a spatially uniform unit stress drop on a neighboring fault. Because the stress drop is normalized, the metric depends only on geometry and is independent of friction, allowing extension to arbitrary fault systems. SSEs occur only at intermediate fault interaction strengths. At low interaction strengths, the system produces regular, periodic earthquakes. At high interaction strengths, fault interactions generate complex earthquake sequences with irregular recurrence and variable magnitudes. Simulations reproduce observed moment-duration scaling and show sensitivity to detection thresholds. These results demonstrate geometric complexity alone generates both slow and fast earthquakes through evolving traction heterogeneity.
arXiv:2607.01562v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Classical software effort distribution models, including the PNR family and Parr alter native curve, were designed to describe the time distribution of development effort under an implied staffing pattern. Their direct use in agile environments is limited when team capacity is fixed, partially fixed, or externally constrained, the original curve may prescribe a staff demand that the organization cannot allocate. This paper proposes a compact refactoring of Parr model as a capacity-aware forecasting layer for agile projects. The contribution is deliberately narrower than a full causal theory of project dynamics. A normalized Parr shaped latent effort demand is combined with an observed or planned capacity trajectory. The resulting model forecasts aggregate progress, completion time, capacity deficit, and capacity slack without assuming that the same internal activity path is followed under resource restriction. The model uses a small parameter set such as total effort K, a Parr shape parameter, an origin constant c that can match nonzero initial staffing, and the capacity trajectory. A discrete sprint formulation is provided, together with a calibration method from ordinary Scrum records and a rolling origin validation protocol against simple management baselines.