arXiv:2605.15218v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models deployed for MAPDL finite-element simulation face practical reliability challenges: without structured execution control, tool encapsulation, and fault recovery, outputs may be inconsistent and task failures are common. The Agent Harness paradigm addresses this by inserting domain-specific orchestration middleware that manages tool lifecycles, workflow state, and recovery escalation. This paper presents the architecture of CAX-Agent, a lightweight agent harness purpose-built for MAPDL automation, and empirically evaluates one of its core components -- the recovery policy.CAX-Agent organizes execution into three layers -- LLM service, agent harness, and solver backend -- with a recovery ladder that escalates from deterministic rule patching through model-driven regeneration to context enrichment and human intervention. We evaluate three recovery strategies (no_recovery, rule_only, and model_only) on 50 standard structural benchmarks with three repeated runs per strategy (450 case-runs total). Two independent human raters score task completion under blind conditions; inter-rater agreement is strong (quadratic weighted Cohen's kappa = 0.84, 96 percent of score pairs within one point). Model_only achieves the best completion rate (0.9267), task score (3.59/4), total score (9.16/10), and zero-intervention rate (0.84), outperforming rule_only (0.7733, 3.17/4, 7.03/10, 0.00) and no_recovery (0.6933, 2.74/4, 5.60/10, 0.00) with large effect sizes (Cliff's delta = 0.81-0.87). The benchmark uses deliberately simple geometries to isolate recovery-policy effects; we discuss the scope of these findings and directions for broader validation.
Science Journals
arXiv:2605.14665v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Legal reasoning is not semantic similarity search. A court judgment encodes constrained symbolic reasoning: precedent propagation, procedural state transitions, and statute-bound inference. These are properties that vector-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) cannot faithfully represent. Hallucinated precedents, outdated statute citations, and unsupported reasoning chains remain persistent failure modes in LLM-based legal AI, with real consequences for access to justice in high-caseload jurisdictions such as India. This paper presents Falkor-IRAC, a graph-constrained generation framework for Indian legal AI that grounds generation in structured reasoning over an IRAC (Issue, Rule, Analysis, Conclusion) knowledge graph. Judgments from the Supreme Court and High Courts of India are ingested as IRAC node structures enriched with procedural state transitions, precedent relationships, and statutory references, stored in FalkorDB for low-latency agentic traversal. At inference time, LLM-generated answers are accepted only if a valid supporting path can be traced through the graph, a check performed by a falsifiability oracle called the Verifier Agent. The system also detects doctrinal conflicts as a first-class output rather than silently resolving them. Falkor-IRAC is evaluated using graph-native metrics: citation grounding accuracy, path validity rate, hallucinated precedent rate, and conflict detection rate. These metrics are argued to be more appropriate for legal reasoning evaluation than BLEU and ROUGE. On a proof-of-concept corpus of 51 Supreme Court judgments, the Verifier Agent correctly validated citations on completed queries and correctly rejected fabricated citations. Evaluation against vector-only RAG baselines is left for future work. The companion InIRAC dataset, 500+ structured Indian court judgments with IRAC annotations, is released alongside this paper.
arXiv:2605.14736v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Target speech extraction remains difficult for compact devices because monaural neural models lack spatial evidence and classical beamformers lose resolving power when the microphone aperture is only a few centimetres. We present IsoNet, a user-selectable audio-visual target speech extraction system for a compact 4-microphone array. IsoNet combines complex multi-channel STFT features, GCC-PHAT spatial cues, face-conditioned visual embeddings, and auxiliary direction-of-arrival supervision inside a U-Net mask estimation network. Three curriculum variants were trained on 25,000 simulated VoxCeleb mixtures with progressively difficult SNR regimes. On a hard test set spanning -1 to 10 dB SNR, IsoNet-CL1 achieves 9.31 dB SI-SDR, a 4.85 dB improvement over the mixture, with PESQ 2.13 and STOI 0.84. Oracle delay-and-sum and MVDR beamformers degrade the same mixtures by 4.82 dB and 6.08 dB SI-SDRi, respectively, showing that the proposed learned multimodal conditioning solves a regime where conventional spatial filtering is ineffective. Ablation studies show consistent gains from visual conditioning, GCC-PHAT features, and extended delay-bin encoding. The results establish a compact-array, face-selectable speech extraction baseline under controlled simulation and identify the remaining barriers to real deployment, especially phase reconstruction, multi-interferer mixtures, and simulation-to-real transfer.
arXiv:2605.14876v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Despite rapid advancements, current text-to-image (T2I) models predominantly rely on a single-step generation paradigm, which struggles with complex semantics and faces diminishing returns from parameter scaling. While recent multi-step reasoning approaches show promise, they are hindered by ungrounded planning hallucinations lacking verification, monolithic post-hoc reflection, long-context optimization instabilities, and prohibitive inference latency. To overcome these bottlenecks, we propose the Closed-Loop Visual Reasoning (CLVR) framework, a comprehensive system that deeply couples visual-language logical planning with pixel-level diffusion generation. CLVR introduces an automated data engine with step-level visual verification to synthesize reliable reasoning trajectories, and proposes Proxy Prompt Reinforcement Learning (PPRL) to resolve long-context optimization instabilities by distilling interleaved multimodal histories into explicit reward signals for accurate causal attribution. Furthermore, to mitigate the severe latency bottleneck caused by iterative denoising, we propose $\Delta$-Space Weight Merge (DSWM), a theoretically grounded method that fuses alignment weights with off-the-shelf distillation priors, reducing the per-step inference cost to just 4 NFEs without requiring expensive re-distillation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CLVR outperforms existing open-source baselines across multiple benchmarks and approaches the performance of proprietary commercial models, unlocking general test-time scaling capabilities for complex visual generation.
arXiv:2605.14978v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by having a lightweight draft model propose speculative windows of candidate tokens for parallel verification by a larger target model. In practice, speculative efficiency is often bottlenecked by hard-to-draft positions, where an early mismatch truncates the accepted prefix and invalidates the rest of the speculative window. Most learning-based drafters are still optimized with token-level supervised objectives, even though speculative utility is inherently window-level and prefix-sensitive. We propose PPOW (Performance-Driven Policy Optimization with Adaptive Windowing), a reinforcement learning framework that shifts drafter optimization from token-level imitation to window-level optimization. PPOW combines a Cost-Aware Speedup Reward, a Distribution-Based Proximity Reward, and Adaptive Divergence-Aware Windowing, which prioritizes informative windows with high confidence-weighted draft-target divergence. PPOW achieves average acceptance lengths of 6.29-6.52 and speedups of 3.39-4.36$\times$ across multiple model families and benchmarks under a unified decoding protocol. These results show that performance-driven window-level optimization is a practical approach to improving speculative decoding efficiency.
arXiv:2605.15823v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Researchers and practitioners in the field of reliability engineering and optimization frequently use active redundancy techniques to intensify the performance of systems. In this article, we study allocation strategies of non-matching active redundancies (spares) in coherent systems consisting of possibly dependent and identical components for achieving better system reliability. The dependence of the components is modeled through copulas using the distortion function. Sufficient conditions are derived to establish optimal allocation strategies for two heterogeneous active redundancies at the component or system levels. Moreover, the results are true for the component lifetimes following a general family of parametric distributions. The results guarantee the likelihood ratio (reversed hazard) ordering between the coherent systems at the component level (system level) active redundancies. Some aging properties are also established in this endeavor. Several examples are provided to demonstrate the theoretical results.
arXiv:2605.15010v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has emerged as a leading representation for real-time novel view synthesis and has been widely adopted in various downstream applications. The core strength of 3DGS lies in its efficient kernel-based scene representation, where Gaussian primitives provide favorable mathematical and computational properties. However, under a finite primitive budget, the symmetric shape of each primitive directly affects representation compactness, especially near asymmetric structures such as object boundaries and one-sided surfaces. Recent works have explored more complex kernel distributions; however, they either remain within the elliptical family or rely on hard truncation, which limits continuous shape control and introduces distributional discontinuities. In this paper, we propose Skew-Normal Splatting (SNS), which adopts the Azzalini Skew-Normal distribution as the fundamental primitive. By introducing a learnable and bounded skewness parameter, SNS can continuously interpolate between symmetric Gaussians and Half-Gaussian-like shapes, enabling flexible modeling of both sharp boundaries and interior regions. Moreover, SNS preserves analytical tractability under affine transformations and marginalization. This property allows seamless integration into existing Gaussian Splatting rasterization pipelines. Furthermore, to address the strong coupling between scale, rotation, and skewness parameters, we introduce a decoupled parameterization and a block-wise optimization strategy to enhance training stability and accuracy. Extensive experiments on standard novel-view synthesis benchmarks show that SNS consistently improves reconstruction quality over Gaussian and recent non-Gaussian kernels, with clearer benefits on sharp boundaries and thin or one-sided structures.
arXiv:2605.15134v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Estimating how often an ML model will fail at deployment scale is central to pre-deployment safety assessment, but a feasible evaluation set is rarely large enough to observe the failures that matter. Jones et al. (2025) address this by extrapolating from the largest k failure scores in an evaluation set to predict deployment-scale failure rates. We give a finite-k decomposition of this estimator's forecast error and show that it has a built-in bias toward over-prediction in the typical case, which is the safety-favorable direction. This bias is offset when the evaluation set misses a rare high-failure mode that the deployment set contains, leaving the forecast to under-predict at deployment scale. We propose a fine-tuning objective, the forecastability loss, that addresses this failure mode. In two proof-of-concept experiments, a language-model password game and an RL gridworld, fine-tuning substantially reduces held-out forecast error while preserving primary-task capability and achieving safety similar to that of supervised baselines.
arXiv:2605.16178v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate seasonal runoff forecasts are critical for managing California's reservoirs and water supply for millions of its residents. Winter snow accumulation provides a strong source of predictability of snowmelt-based runoff in the spring and summer months, but progressive hydroclimatic changes in the Sierra Nevada are altering its timing and volume. These changes reduce the skill of statistical forecasts trained on historical data, highlighting the need for improved forecasting systems that can capture the changing dynamics of snowmelt. Here we demonstrate that a collaborative workflow between an agentic AI assistant and an automated code-mutation system, both powered by large language models, can accelerate the development of competitive seasonal runoff forecasting systems. In our framework, the AI agent discovers relevant datasets, synthesizes domain knowledge from prior forecasting competitions and the scientific literature, and explores the space of model architectures, while the code-mutation system refines each of the solutions explored by the agent through Monte Carlo Tree Search over the code space. The resulting system forecasts monthly Full Natural Flow (FNF) at 1- to 6-month lead times across 23 Sierra Nevada watersheds using an adaptive ensemble of three XGBoost quantile regression sub-models with physics-informed feature engineering. Evaluated against California's operational Bulletin 120 forecasts over 2021-2025, the agent-evolved model achieves superior skill for early-season cumulative April-July runoff predictions, reducing watershed-averaged quantile forecast error by up to 29%, and offering a new paradigm for AI-driven scientific model development in the geosciences.
arXiv:2506.16129v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Neurosymbolic learning can use symbolic rules to provide supervision for latent concepts from weak labels, but it commonly assumes that the entities referenced by these rules are already specified. Object-centric models decompose images into slot-like representations; however, such slots are not necessarily aligned with the predicates required for symbolic reasoning. We investigate object-centric neurosymbolic learning under distant supervision, where the object-level arguments of a logic program are learned directly from images using only global task labels. We introduce DeepObjectLog, a probabilistic neurosymbolic model that integrates a slot-based perceptual encoder with a probabilistic logic layer. The encoder predicts objectness and class probabilities for candidate object representations, while the logic layer marginalizes over latent objectness and class assignments to compute the likelihood of the observed label. This formulation provides a differentiable task-level learning signal for object-centric perception without requiring per-object labels, masks, bounding boxes, or heuristic set matching. Evaluations across diverse visual reasoning tasks demonstrate that DeepObjectLog achieves superior out-of-distribution generalization to compositional, object-count, and rule shifts compared to neural object-centric and standard neurosymbolic baselines.
arXiv:2506.22440v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper introduces the Generality-Accuracy-Simplicity (GAS) framework to analyze how large language models (LLMs) are reshaping organizations and competitive strategy. We argue that viewing AI as a simple reduction in input costs overlooks two critical dynamics: (a) the inherent trade-offs among generality, accuracy, and simplicity, and (b) the redistribution of complexity across stakeholders. While LLMs appear to defy the traditional trade-off by offering high generality and accuracy through simple interfaces, this user-facing simplicity masks a significant shift of complexity to infrastructure, compliance, and specialized personnel. The GAS trade-off, therefore, does not disappear but is relocated from the user to the organization, creating new managerial challenges, particularly around accuracy in high-stakes applications. We contend that competitive advantage no longer stems from mere AI adoption, but from mastering this redistributed complexity through the design of abstraction layers, workflow alignment, and complementary expertise. This study advances AI strategy by clarifying how scalable cognition relocates complexity and redefines the conditions for technology integration.
arXiv:2605.16191v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a case study for how AI coding systems can be used to generate novel scientific hypotheses. We combine a generic coding agent (Google's AntiGravity) with an LLM-driven tree search algorithm (Empirical Research Assistance / ERA) to autonomously generate high-efficiency three-dimensional photovoltaic (3DPV) structures that overcome losses limiting flat solar panels at mid-latitudes. These structures operate by presenting favorable angles to the sun throughout the day, and for illustrative purposes we focus on optimizing performance for a single solar day. Our workflow begins by using AntiGravity to reproduce calculations \cite{bernardi2012solar} showing that 3DPV can have energy densities much higher than stationary flat PV panels. We use these initial designs as the starting point for large scale tree search, where we seek improved solutions and score them for their diurnal yield. The initial tree search leads to nominally more efficient solutions, yet they are caused by algorithmic reward hacking, arising from non-physical design features such as structurally levitating disconnected tiers and exploitations of the discretizations in the optics solver. To counteract this, we develop a workflow where the coding agent iteratively patches the physics engine with constraints to eliminate reward hacking. With reward-hacking eliminated, ERA discovers a series of designs with various constraints and improved performance, including optimal designs with different fixed collector areas, optimizing zenith tracking and avoiding self shadowing. Combining coding agents with tree search (ERA) provides a powerful platform for scientific discovery, for problems whose solutions can be empirically evaluated with a score function.
arXiv:2507.17572v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global optimization has gained attraction over the past decades, thanks to the development of both theoretical foundations and efficient numerical routines. Among recent advances, Kernel Sum of Squares (KernelSOS) provides a powerful theoretical framework, combining the expressivity of kernel methods with the guarantees of SOS optimization. In this paper, we take KernelSOS from theory to practice and demonstrate its use on challenging control and robotics problems. We identify and address the practical considerations required to make the method work in applied settings: restarting strategies, systematic calibration of hyperparameters, methods for recovering minimizers, and the combination with fast local solvers. As a proof of concept, the application of KernelSOS to robot localization highlights its competitiveness with existing SOS approaches that rely on heuristics and handcrafted reformulations to render the problem polynomial. Even in the high-dimensional, non-parametric setting of trajectory optimization with simulators treated as black boxes, we demonstrate how KernelSOS can be combined with fast local solvers to uncover higher-quality solutions without compromising overall runtimes.
arXiv:2507.20098v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper compares data-driven predictive control strategies by examining their theoretical foundations, assumptions, and applications. The three most widely recognized and consequential methods, Data Enabled Predictive Control, Willems-Koopman Predictive Control, Model-Free Adaptive Predictive Control are employed. Each of these strategies is systematically reviewed, and the primary theories supporting it are outlined. Following analysis, a discussion is provided regarding their fundamental assumptions, emphasizing their influence on control effectiveness. A numerical example is presented as a benchmark for comparison to enable a rigorous performance evaluation.
arXiv:2508.01014v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Advances in 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis have enabled efficient and photorealistic rendering. However, images for reconstruction are still either largely manual or constrained by simple preplanned trajectories. To address this issue, recent works propose generalizable next-best-view planners that do not require online learning. Nevertheless, robustness and performance remain limited across various shapes. Hence, this study introduces Voxel-Face-Aware Hierarchical Next-Best-View Acquisition for Efficient 3D Reconstruction (Hestia), which addresses the shortcomings of the reinforcement learning-based generalizable approaches for five-degree-of-freedom viewpoint prediction. Hestia systematically improves the planners through four components: a more diverse dataset to promote robustness, a hierarchical structure to manage the high-dimensional continuous action search space, a close-greedy strategy to mitigate spurious correlations, and a face-aware design to avoid overlooking geometry. Experimental results show that Hestia achieves non-marginal improvements, with at least a 4% gain in coverage ratio, while reducing Chamfer Distance by 50% and maintaining real-time inference. In addition, Hestia outperforms prior methods by at least 12% in coverage ratio with a 5-image budget and remains robust to object placement variations. Finally, we demonstrate that Hestia, as a next-best-view planner, is feasible for the real-world application. Our project page is https://johnnylu305.github.io/hestia web.
arXiv:2605.15220v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data mixing decides how to combine different sources or types of data and is a consequential problem throughout language model training. In pretraining, data composition is a key determinant of model quality; in continual learning and adaptation, it governs what is retained and acquired. Yet existing data mixing methods address only one phase of this lifecycle at a time: some require smaller proxy models tied to a single training phase, others assume a fixed domain set, and continual learning lacks principled guidance altogether. We argue that data mixing is fundamentally an online decision making problem -- one that recurs throughout training and demands a single, unified solution. We introduce OP-Mix (On-Policy Mix), a data mixing algorithm that operates across the entire language model training lifecycle. Our main insight is that candidate data mixtures can be cheaply simulated by interpolating between low-rank adapters trained directly on the current model, eliminating separate proxy models and ensuring the search is always grounded in the model's actual learning dynamics. Across pretraining, continual midtraining, and continual instruction tuning, OP-Mix consistently finds near-optimal mixtures while using a fraction of the compute of the baselines. In pretraining, OP-Mix improves upon training without mixing by 6.3% in average perplexity. For continual learning, OP-Mix matches the performance of both retraining and on-policy distillation while using 66% and 95% less overall compute, respectively. OP-Mix suggests a different view of language model training: not a sequence of distinct phases, but a single continuous process of learning from data.
arXiv:2605.15221v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AlphaEvolve and FunSearch have demonstrated the potential of combining large language models (LLMs) with evolutionary search for automated algorithm discovery. However, discovery success is shaped not only by model capability but also significantly by the design of the execution infrastructure, i.e., the harness. This paper investigates effective harness design through three questions: under a fixed token budget, is it better to produce many algorithms with brief thought or fewer algorithms with deeper thought? How should the harness handle evaluation hacks, where generated programs exploit the scoring function? And how can agents that require full filesystem access execute safely in parallel? Using Vesper, an algorithm discovery framework that incorporates harness improvements addressing these questions, we evaluate on Circle Packing under the same token budget. Interestingly, generating fewer algorithms while thinking more deeply about each one achieved higher scores. That is, scaling the quality of each individual is more budget-efficient than scaling the number of evolutionary generations. Surprisingly, more capable models produced evaluation hacks at higher rates, making hack detection increasingly necessary as models scale.
arXiv:2508.17034v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Noisy, partially overlapping data and the need for real-time processing pose major challenges for rigid registration. Considering that feature-based matching can handle large transformation differences but suffers from limited accuracy, while local geometry-based matching can achieve fine-grained local alignment but relies heavily on a good initial transformation, we propose a novel dual-space paradigm to fully leverage the strengths of both approaches. First, we introduce an efficient filtering mechanism consisting of a computationally lightweight one-point RANSAC algorithm and a subsequent refinement module to eliminate unreliable feature-based correspondences. Subsequently, we treat the filtered correspondences as anchor points, extract geometric proxies, and formulate an effective objective function with a tailored solver to estimate the transformation. Experiments verify our method's effectiveness, as demonstrated by a 32x CPU-time speedup over MAC on KITTI with comparable accuracy. Project page: https://ustc3dv.github.io/DualReg/.
arXiv:2605.15620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study risk-aware offline policy learning, aiming to learn a decision rule from logged data that is optimal under general risk criteria. This problem is crucial in high-stakes domains where online interaction is infeasible and adverse outcomes must be carefully controlled. However, existing literature on offline contextual bandits either centers on expected-reward criteria or restricts risk considerations to policy evaluation instead of optimization. In this work, we propose a unified distributional framework for optimizing Lipschitz-continuous risk functionals, a broad class of risk measures encompassing mean-variance, entropic risk, and conditional value-at-risk, among others. By developing novel empirical concentration inequalities for importance sampling-based distributional estimators, our analysis derives data-dependent suboptimality bounds with an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{n})$ rate, without relying on restrictive uniform overlap assumptions. This rate is minimax optimal and matches that of risk-neutral offline policy optimization, indicating that optimizing general Lipschitz risk criteria incurs no additional statistical cost relative to the expected-reward.
arXiv:2509.05030v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: To enable large-scale reuse of real-world 3D assets, where garments and characters rarely share skeletons, templates, or dense correspondences, we present a fully automated virtual try-on system that dresses complex, multi-layer garments onto diverse, arbitrarily posed humanoids. Our key idea is to use SMPL as an intermediate proxy and decompose clothing-to-body transfer into two correspondence tasks with distinct challenges: (1) clothing-to-SMPL (partial-to-complete alignment) and (2) body-to-SMPL (large pose/shape variation and stylization). We address clothing-to-SMPL using a geometry-driven correspondence model, and introduce a diffusion-based body-to-SMPL correspondence approach that leverages multi-view consistent appearance features together with a pretrained 2D foundation model. Using these correspondences, we register SMPL/SMPL+D (Displacement) to the garment and target body and then perform simulator-driven fitting by transferring the garment along a smooth SMPL-to-SMPL+D transition, producing physically plausible draping on the target. Our system handles complex garment topology (including non-manifold meshes) and generalizes to a wide range of humanoid characters (e.g., humans, robots, cartoons, and creatures) while remaining computationally practical. Upon draping, our system also supports fast customization of clothing size. We show that our system can produce high-quality 3D clothing fittings without any human labor, even when 2D clothing sewing patterns are not available. Our project page is: https://cao-cong0.github.io/LUIVITON-Learned-Universal-Interoperable-VIrtual-Try-ON/.
arXiv:2509.10825v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Explaining a trained model requires a clear account of how explanatory evidence is generated. We propose CUBE, a post-hoc explanation framework that brings factorial experimental design to black-box model analysis. CUBE evaluates a trained predictor on balanced low--high probe combinations and summarizes the responses as factorial effects. Main effects and pairwise interactions are interpreted as controlled contrasts on a specified explanation region. Complete factorial probes identify these effects exactly on the selected design space, while fractional probes reduce query cost and expose aliasing and resolution constraints. Experiments on synthetic and real tabular tasks show that CUBE recovers dominant learned effect structure and clarifies the identifiability limits of query-efficient explanations.
arXiv:2509.17189v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Turbulence remains one of the last unresolved problems of classical physics and a major bottleneck to accurate flow prediction in climate, aerospace, and energy systems. Industrial simulations therefore rely on averaged representations of turbulence, which often struggle to predict flows governed by multiple interacting mechanisms. We present a unified, data-driven turbulence modeling framework designed to learn robustly from sparse, indirect observations across diverse flow regimes. The framework embeds physical consistency into a flexible, frame-invariant closure, automatically selects representative training cases based on similarity of flow-feature distributions, and learns a single, unified model through a multi-objective ensemble strategy that balances competing objectives across flows and quantities of interest. The resulting unified foundation model adapts seamlessly across regimes without manual intervention. It outperforms existing turbulence models across a broad spectrum of canonical flows and maintains improved performance in complex three-dimensional configurations of industrial relevance, including a gas turbine diffuser, a generic car, and a generic aircraft. When application-specific accuracy is required, the framework further enables specialist models through additive fine-tuning on targeted flow datasets. The results demonstrate the feasibility of a deployable and generalized turbulence modeling approach that unifies multiple flow mechanisms within a single architecture for a broad range of natural and industrial flows.
arXiv:2509.20349v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate time-series forecasting for complex physical systems is the backbone of modern industrial monitoring and control, yet deep learning models often lack the physical consistency required in regulated environments.To bridge this gap, we introduce Process-Informed Forecasting (PIF) models for temperature in pharmaceutical lyophilization, embedding deterministic production recipes as macro-structural priors. We investigate classical methods (e.g., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model) and modern deep learning architectures, including Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). We compare three different loss function formulations that integrate a process-informed trajectory prior: a fixed-weight loss, a dynamic uncertainty-based loss, and a Residual-Based Attention (RBA) mechanism. We evaluate all models not only for accuracy and physical consistency but also for robustness to sensor noise. Furthermore, we test the practical generalizability of the best model in a transfer-learning scenario to a new process. Our results show that PIF models outperform their data-driven counterparts in terms of accuracy, physical plausibility and noise resilience, offering a scalable framework for reliable and generalizable forecasting solutions in critical manufacturing.
arXiv:2509.21465v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Tabular foundation models are becoming increasingly popular for low-resource tabular problems. These models make up for small training datasets by pretraining on large volumes of synthetic data. The prior knowledge obtained via pretraining provides the exceptional performance, but the resulting model becomes a black box that is difficult to interpret and costly for inference. In this work, we explore an alternative strategy: using reasoning-capable LLMs to induce decision trees for small tabular datasets in an agentic setup. We design a minimal set of tools for constructing, analyzing, and manipulating decision trees. Equipped with these tools, the LLM combines its prior knowledge with learning from data to produce a lightweight decision tree that outperforms CART and recent non-greedy tree learners and remains competitive with tree ensembles on low-resource tabular problems. While a single agentic decision tree is competitive with state-of-the-art black box models, it also comes with a human-readable reasoning trace that can be checked for biases and data leaks. Furthermore, the reasoning-based LLM's creation process allows for additional human input to be incorporated into the tree without it being captured in data.
arXiv:2605.15472v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce the Estimated Dynamic Equilibrium Model (EDEM), an agent-based framework that treats supply and demand as a coupled stochastic process driven by heterogeneous, noisy agent valuations. The model's primary technical contribution is the identification of a generative mechanism for persistent disequilibrium: when market-clearing prices are sequentially sampled from the upper tail of noisy bid distributions and recycled as inputs for future valuations, expected prices drift upward despite strictly zero-mean estimation errors. We derive this order-statistic bias in closed form for i.i.d. uniform bids and use simulations to show that compounding this bias across epochs yields exponential price growth without requiring assumptions of investor optimism or irrationality. This framework extends Miller's divergence-of-opinion theory to a dynamic setting, recovering Walrasian equilibrium and Miller's static premium as limiting cases. Through controlled experiments and sensitivity analysis on a simulated real-estate neighborhood, we identify six distinct regimes-ranging from band-stability to runaway bubbles-emerging from a single agent ruleset. These results offer a potential explanation for the contradictory findings in the empirical divergence-of-opinion literature and suggest that machine-learning valuation algorithms may inadvertently amplify this inherent statistical bias.