arXiv:2605.15445v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Automated proving of polynomial inequalities is a fundamental challenge in automated mathematical reasoning, where rich algebraic structure and a rapidly growing certificate search space hinder scalability. Purely symbolic approaches provide strong guarantees but often scale poorly as the number of variables or the degree increases, due to expensive algebraic manipulations and rapidly growing intermediate expressions. In parallel, LLM-guided methods have made notable progress, particularly on competition-style inequalities with a small number of variables. To address the remaining scalability challenges, we propose NSPI, a neuro-symbolic framework that combines the complementary strengths of LLMs and symbolic computation for polynomial-inequality proving. Concretely, an LLM proposes a conjecture in the form of an approximate polynomial Sum-Of-Squares (SOS) decomposition; we refine it via symbolic computation to obtain an exact polynomial SOS representation, which directly proves the target inequality, and we further certify the proof in Lean, yielding an end-to-end pipeline from heuristic discovery to machine-checked proof. Experiments on challenging benchmarks involving polynomials with up to 10 variables demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed method.
Science Journals
arXiv:2510.10454v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) offer a generalizable approach for modeling patient trajectories, but suffer from the long and noisy nature of electronic health records (EHR) data in temporal reasoning. To address these challenges, we introduce Traj-CoA, a multi-agent system involving chain-of-agents for patient trajectory modeling. Traj-CoA employs a chain of worker agents to process EHR data in manageable chunks sequentially, distilling critical events into a shared long-term memory module, EHRMem, to reduce noise and preserve a comprehensive timeline. A final manager agent synthesizes the worker agents' summary and the extracted timeline in EHRMem to make predictions. In a zero-shot one-year lung cancer risk prediction task based on five-year EHR data, Traj-CoA outperforms baselines of four categories. Analysis reveals that Traj-CoA exhibits clinically aligned temporal reasoning, establishing it as a promisingly robust and generalizable approach for modeling complex patient trajectories. Implementation of Traj-CoA is available on https://github.com/zengsihang/Traj-CoA.
arXiv:2605.15412v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern quantitative trading increasingly relies on systematic models to extract predictive signals from large-scale financial data, where alpha factor discovery plays a central role in transforming market observations into tradable signals. Recent LLM-based methods have shown promise in automating factor generation, but most of them still rely on prompt-level generation--evaluation--feedback loops for iterative optimization. As the loop becomes longer, repeatedly appended historical candidates and feedback can cause context explosion, increase inference cost, dilute useful information, and introduce feedback drift. Moreover, these methods often depend on very large LLMs whose stable generation preferences may lead to structurally similar expressions, redundant candidates, and search stagnation. To address these limitations, we propose \textsc{QuantEvolver}, a self-evolving alpha factor discovery framework based on reinforcement fine-tuning. Instead of accumulating feedback in the prompt, \textsc{QuantEvolver} converts executable quantitative evaluation into policy updates, enabling a Miner LLM to internalize historical optimization experience through parameter learning. Specifically, \textsc{QuantEvolver} constructs high-quality seed factors, builds diverse seed--time-window training tasks, generates executable Factor DSL expressions, evaluates them through Regime Backtest, and optimizes the Miner LLM with Diversity-Complementarity Reward. During training, high-quality factors are continuously accumulated in a Mined Factor Database, which serves as the final discovered factor library. Extensive experiments on three realistic market benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of \textsc{QuantEvolver}, which consistently improves the primary evaluation metric of each task over existing LLM-based alpha factor discovery baselines, produces higher-quality and more complementary factor pools.
arXiv:2605.15409v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a model for a buoyancy-driven, air-to-air heat exchanger. This model, derived from first principles, features a conservative boundary condition at inflow based on the compressible Bernoulli equation, and a dissipative boundary condition at outflow based on pressure continuity. We solve for the steady-state behavior numerically and asymptotically, with excellent agreement between the two, and we study the tradeoff between the efficiency and air flow predicted by the model.
arXiv:2605.15342v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Video reasoning models are a core component of egocentric and embodied agents. However, standard benchmarks for assessing models provide only evaluation of the output (e.g. the answer to a question), without evaluation of intermediate reasoning steps, and most provide answers only in the text domain. We introduce Minerva-Ego, a benchmark for evaluating complex egocentric visual reasoning. We extend recent high-quality video data sources recorded from egocentric / embodied settings with a set of challenging, multi-step multimodal questions and spatiotemporally-dense human-annotated reasoning traces. Benchmarking experiments show that state-of-the-art models still have a large gap to human performance. To investigate this gap in detail, we annotate each reasoning trace in the dataset with the objects of interest required to solve the question, as spatiotemporal mask annotations. Through extensive evaluations, we identify that prompting frontier models with hints of 'where' and 'when' to look yields substantial improvements in performance. Minerva-Ego can be downloaded at https://github.com/google-deepmind/neptune.
arXiv:2509.00867v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Neural operators (NOs) provide a new paradigm for efficiently solving partial differential equations (PDEs), but their training depends on costly high-fidelity data from numerical solvers, limiting applications in complex systems. We propose a self-supervised neural operator (SNO) that generates accurate and diverse training data on the fly without numerical solvers. SNO consists of three parts: a physics-informed sampler (PI-sampler) based on Bayesian PINNs for efficient data generation, a function encoder (FE) for compact input-output representations, and an encoder-only Transformer for operator learning, mapping boundary/initial conditions, source terms, and geometries to PDE solutions. We validate SNO on 1D steady/unsteady nonlinear reaction-diffusion equations, a 2D nonlinear PDE with varying geometries, and vortex-induced vibration of a flexible cylinder in fluid dynamics. SNO achieves high accuracy in all cases, and lightweight finetuning (O(100) trainable variables) further improves predictions with only a few hundred steps. This work provides a new route toward pretrained foundation models as efficient PDE surrogates.
arXiv:2605.15408v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We show that the covariance matrix of any cylindrically symmetric coherent orbital angular momentum (OAM) eigenmode with quantum number $\ell$ takes a universal form depending only on $\langle r^2\rangle$, $\langle k_r^2\rangle$, and $\ell$, independently of the radial profile, and that this form is identical to the covariance matrix of a twisted Gaussian Schell-model (TGSM) beam.} More specifically, both matrices share the same pattern of zero and nonzero entries, with the off-diagonal blocks proportional to $\ell$ and the TGSM twist parameter $u$, respectively. This result holds for an arbitrary radial profile and provides direct term-by-term identification of parameters between the two sets of beams. We work out the correspondence in detail for three important families: Laguerre--Gaussian (LG), Bessel--Gaussian, and perfect vortex beams (PVBs), and derive the conditions under which each coherent OAM mode maps onto a physically realizable TGSM beam. {Because the covariance matrix governs second-moment evolution under arbitrary ABCD (symplectic) transformations, any two beams sharing the same covariance matrix are second-order indistinguishable at every propagation plane. In particular, the matched TGSM and coherent OAM beams share identical beam-width evolution, far-field divergence, and $M^2$ beam-quality factor.} In particular, the well-developed TGSM propagation toolbox applies directly to the second-order moment evolution of the three coherent families. We further show that within each beam family the covariance matrix uniquely determines the beam parameters, with exact uniqueness established for LG modes. Additional results include cross-family second-moment equivalence conditions and a proof that PVB modes form a complete orthonormal basis in the limit $w\to 0$.
arXiv:2605.15443v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Ensemble-variational (EnVar) assimilation of wall-pressure measurements in direct numerical simulations of Mach 6 flow over a cone-flare is performed. The experimental data include pressure spectra and intensities from seven wall-mounted PCB sensors positioned upstream, within, and downstream of the separation region induced by the compression corner. Assimilation of the first two sensors only, all upstream of separation, is insufficient to accurately predict the downstream flow. Assimilating all the sensor data is shown to be essential to correctly predict separation onset and the downstream wall-pressure data. Similar to the experiments, the assimilated flow features intense rope-like structures in the attached region. The simulations additionally predict a localized amplification of disturbances beneath the separation shock, where experimental data are not available. This amplification results from the interaction of the boundary-layer instability modes with the compression shock. The simulations also capture the sharp decrease in wall-pressure intensity across separation, and the amplification of low-frequency three-dimensional disturbances within the recirculation bubble. Additionally, the computations highlight the uncertainty in the post-separation predictions due to the low-frequency unsteadiness of the separation shock. Oscillations of the streamwise velocity modulate the boundary-layer thickness, which in turn introduces variability in disturbance amplification.
arXiv:2605.15440v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Surprisal theory posits that the processing difficulty of a word is determined by its predictability in context, offering a potential link between human sentence processing and next-word predictions from language models. While language model (LM) surprisals successfully predict reading times in naturalistic text, they systematically underpredict the magnitude of difficulty observed in controlled studies of syntactic ambiguity, particularly in garden path sentences. This mismatch might arise from differences in the computational constraints between humans and LMs. Here we test one such hypothesis, specifically, that LMs may be able to simultaneously consider a greater number of distinct sentence interpretations at once, compared to humans. Using Recurrent Neural Network Grammars (RNNGs) with word-synchronous beam search, we systematically vary the number of simultaneous parses used to compute word surprisal, and then use these surprisals to predict human reading times. Reducing the number of simultaneous active parses indeed increases the magnitude of predicted garden path effects, but not nearly enough to capture the full magnitude of the effects in humans. This suggests that differences in the number of simultaneous parses available to LMs and humans cannot reconcile LM-based surprisal with human sentence processing.
arXiv:2605.15356v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate surrogate construction for PDE-driven high-dimensional rare-event simulation is challenging when performance evaluations are expensive. Since a globally accurate surrogate may require many high-fidelity evaluations, adaptive importance sampling provides a natural localization tool: its evolving proposal distribution progressively identifies the failure-relevant region. Motivated by this observation, we propose a surrogate-assisted adaptive importance sampling framework that refines the surrogate locally along the evolving proposal, rather than over the entire input space. The surrogate combines an encoder with a neural network, providing a low-dimensional latent representation for both prediction and sample selection. At each adaptive iteration, candidates drawn from the current proposal are selected by a greedy latent-space rule balancing proximity to the estimated failure boundary and sample diversity. The selected samples are evaluated by the high-fidelity model and used to refine the surrogate, which then guides the subsequent cross-entropy-type adaptive proposal update. We establish one-step proposal stability bounds under local surrogate errors, together with surrogate-induced misclassification and finite-sample estimation error bounds. Numerical experiments on multimodal benchmarks and PDE-driven rare-event problems up to 100 dimensions show that the proposed method achieves accuracy comparable to true-model adaptive importance sampling while requiring substantially fewer high-fidelity evaluations.
arXiv:2504.09544v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in self-supervised deep learning have improved our ability to quantify cellular morphological changes in high-throughput microscopy screens, a process known as morphological profiling. However, most current methods only learn from images, despite many screens being inherently multimodal, as they involve both a chemical or genetic perturbation as well as an image-based readout. We hypothesized that incorporating chemical compound structures during self-supervised pre-training could improve learned representations of images from high-throughput microscopy screens. We introduce a representation learning framework, MICON (Molecular-Image Contrastive Learning), that models chemical compounds as treatments that induce transformations of cell phenotypes. MICON significantly outperforms classical hand-crafted features such as CellProfiler and existing deep-learning-based representation learning methods in challenging evaluation settings where models must identify reproducible effects of drugs across independent replicates and data-generating centers. We demonstrate that incorporating chemical compound information into the learning process provides small, but consistent improvements in performance and that modeling compounds specifically as treatments outperforms approaches that directly align images and compounds in a single representation space. Our findings point to a new direction for representation learning in morphological profiling, suggesting that methods should explicitly account for the multimodal nature of microscopy screening data.
arXiv:2605.15380v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent advances in generative AI have shown their potential to be leveraged for legal education. Yet, work on the development and deployment of such systems for legal education in the Global South is limited. In this work, we developed Eskwai for Students, a generative AI assistant to help law students with their legal education. Eskwai for Students is a retrieval augmented generation (RAG) system that provides answers to a wide range of legal questions for law students grounded in a curated database of over 12K case laws and 1.4K legislation in Ghana. We deployed Eskwai for Students in a longitudinal study of 30 months (2.5 years) used by 3.1K law students in Ghana who made 32K queries. We evaluated the helpfulness of our AI, and provided insight into the kinds of queries law students submit to this generative AI tool, which raises some ethical concerns. This work contributes to an understanding of how law students in the Global South are using generative AI for their studies and the ways it could be leveraged responsibly to advance legal education.
Don't Retrieve, Navigate: Distilling Enterprise Knowledge into Navigable Agent Skills for QA and RAG
arXiv:2604.14572v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) grounds LLM responses in external evidence but treats the model as a passive consumer of search results, with no view of how the corpus is organized or what it has not yet seen. We present Corpus2Skill, which distills a document corpus offline into a hierarchical skill directory and lets an LLM agent navigate it at serve time, drilling from a bird's-eye view through progressively finer summaries down to documents, and backtracking when a branch is unproductive. On an enterprise customer-support benchmark, Corpus2Skill improves both answer quality and grounding over single-shot dense, hybrid, hierarchical-retrieval, and agentic RAG baselines at a moderate cost tradeoff. A ten-subset generalization study further shows that corpus navigation is not a universal replacement for retrieval: it consistently helps on single-domain corpora with a recoverable topical taxonomy, but flat retrieval remains preferable on open-domain factoid pools or homogeneous-tabular corpora that defeat top-level clustering. We characterize this scope distinction and discuss it as a design guideline for knowledge-grounded systems. Code is available at https://github.com/dukesun99/Corpus2Skill.
arXiv:2603.01283v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deployed reinforcement learning systems lack a principled runtime reliability theory. We close this gap by introducing Bipredictability, P, a closed form information theoretic metric that quantifies how efficiently a closed loop interaction between agent and environment converts uncertainty into shared predictability. P admits a provable classical bound P equal, smaller than 0.5, derived from Shannon entropy subadditivity, and responsive agency necessarily suppresses P below this ceiling, a structural prediction we term the informational cost of agency. Across 21 trained continuous control agents, we confirm this prediction empirically at P = 0.33 plus minus 0.02. The same suppression signature reproduces in language model dialogue, convolutional vision systems, and classical mechanical baselines, indicating that P captures a substrate independent property of agentic interaction rather than an algorithm specific artifact. The Information Digital Twin, IDT, a model agnostic architecture that computes P from the external interaction stream, detects 89.3% of coupling degradations against 44.0% for reward based monitoring, with 4.4 times lower latency. P provides the missing measurement layer for runtime reliability and closed loop self regulation in deployed autonomous systems.
arXiv:2604.09631v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As deep learning models are deployed on resource constrained edge platforms in autonomous driving systems, reli able knowledge of hardware behavior under resource degradation becomes an essential requirement. Therefore, we introduce a systematic characterization of CPU load, GPU utilization, RAM consumption, power draw, throughput, and thermal behaviour of TensorRT-optimized YOLOv10s, YOLOv11s and YOLO2026n pipelines running on NVIDIA Jetson Nano under a large-scale fault injection campaign targeting both lane-following and ob ject detection tasks. Faults are synthesized using a decoupled framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) and latent diffusion models (LDMs), based on original data from our JetBot platform data collection. Results show that across both tasks and both models the inference engines keep GPU occupancy stable, temperature rise under control, and power consumption within safe limits, while memory usage settles into a consistent release pattern after the initial warm-up phase. Object detection tends to show somewhat more variability in memory and thermal behavior, yet both tasks point to the same conclusion: the TensorRT pipelines hold up well even when the input data is heavily degraded. These findings offer a hardware-level view of model reliability that sits alongside, rather than against, the broader body of work focused on inference performance at the edge.
arXiv:2605.16024v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Desktop GUI agents operate under partial observability: visually similar screens can correspond to different underlying workflow states, so locally plausible actions can lead to sharply different outcomes. We frame this as a problem of computer/OS state exploration, where effective behavior requires both expanding the reachable frontier and reducing ambiguity before committing. We present ScreenSearch, a system that combines structural screen retrieval and deduplication with an ambiguity-aware PUCT graph-bandit for large-scale desktop exploration. The retrieval layer converts UIA trees into location-aware structural features, indexes related screens through sparse token search and metadata filters, and maintains a shared deduplicated state graph across VM workers. On top of this graph, we define a scalable ambiguity signal based on matched-action outcome dispersion. If similar screens produce different next states under the same action signature, the state should be probed further rather than treated as resolved. We use this signal together with frontier rewards to drive large-scale exploration and replay-start policy evaluation over the shared graph. Across 11 desktop applications, ScreenSearch collects over 1M screenshots and over 30K deduplicated states, yielding large exploration corpora with substantial cross-application and within-application diversity. On a fixed replay-start slice, we observe a clear novelty--ambiguity trade-off: some policies reduce ambiguity quickly while discovering little frontier. Ambiguity reduction alone is therefore not a sufficient exploration objective. Appendix ablations show that stronger proposal priors can materially improve unique-state discovery during corpus building. These results suggest that state identity, proposal quality, and ambiguity-aware search all matter when deciding when to probe and when to commit.
arXiv:2302.09758v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A recently proposed superconducting linear collider with energy recovery (ERLC) and multiple beam reuse employs twin RF structures to eliminate parasitic collisions in the linacs. Such a collider can operate in either pulsed or continuous-wave (CW) mode, achieving a luminosity of ${\cal O}(10^{36})$ cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ at $2E_0$ = 250--500 GeV. This paper demonstrates that in pulsed mode, the ERLC luminosity is independent of the accelerating gradient for a fixed total power, enabling operation at the highest available gradients. A similar independence holds for the CW mode when the available power significantly exceeds the operational threshold. The luminosity scales with the cavity quality factor as $L\propto Q_0^{1/2}$. We also present, for the first time, a study of a twin $e^-e^-$ ERLC and estimate its performance. This configuration is simpler than the $e^+e^-$ version as it eliminates the need for beam recirculation; electrons can be generated anew for each cycle. In this case, the luminosity scales as $L\propto Q_0^{1/4}$. Furthermore, the use of traveling-wave (TW) RF structures allows for higher gradients and reduced thermal loading. We show that an ERLC with $G$ = 40 MeV/m can operate in CW mode, reaching luminosities of $L_{e^+e^-}$= (1-2.5)$\times 10^{36}$ and $L_{e^-e^-}$= (3-7)$\times 10^{36}$ cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ at $2E_0$ = 250 and 500 GeV, respectively, with a total power consumption of 150-300 MW. These results position the ERLC as a highly promising candidate for a future Higgs factory.
arXiv:2605.16020v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Monte Carlo methods are essential across diverse scientific fields, yet their efficiency is frequently hampered by critical slowing down-a sharp increase in autocorrelation times near phase transitions. Although deep learning approaches, such as neural-network-based samplers, have been proposed to alleviate this issue, they face another serious problem: the difficulty of training the models. This difficulty partially stems from the overly general nature of original machine-learning architectures, which often ignore underlying physical symmetries and force networks to relearn them from scratch. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating physical priors into the model significantly enhances performance. Building upon existing strategies that integrate spin-spin interactions, we propose a framework that utilizes a prior probability distribution as a starting point for training. Our results for the Ising model, as well as for the Edwards-Anderson spin glass model, suggest that moving away from `blank slate' models in favor of physics-informed priors reduces the training burden and facilitates the simulation of larger system sizes in discrete spin models.
arXiv:2605.15406v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This work presents a new approach for implementing polymorphism for bottom-up relational languages, without monomorphization. We begin by introducing semiringKanren, a bottom-up weighted relational programming language. We extend this base language to support polymorphism. We describe a new method to compile polymorphic semiringKanren programs into non-polymorphic ones, based on equality patterns and large-enough instances of polymorphic relations. We prove the correctness of this method. Finally, we consider existing work and suggest directions for future research.
arXiv:2605.15404v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language model personalization typically adapts outputs to user preferences and style but does not account for differences in user evaluation capacity across domains of expertise. This limitation can encourage Professional Domain Drift, where users rely on AI generated reasoning in domains they cannot reliably evaluate. We introduce Capability Conditioned Scaffolding, a typed framework that partitions expertise into strong, mixed, and weak domains and conditions intervention behavior on structured capability profiles. A pilot evaluation across multiple MMLU subsets and four LLM substrates shows consistent profile conditioned intervention behavior, including categorical inversion under profile swapping and selective activation in mixed domain risk zones. These findings suggest that capability aware scaffolding can support more reliable professional human AI collaboration beyond stylistic personalization.
arXiv:2605.15734v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The use of large language models to assess user states in conversational and adaptive systems is based on the assumption that the metrics used for such assessment are stable and interpretable at the level of individual scores. This paper empirically tests this assumption, focusing on the psychometric reliability of artificial intelligence (AI) measures of user states. This study employed replication evaluation procedures to assess the repeatability of a broad set of metrics across three different bimodal large language models (GPT-4o audio, Gemini 2.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5 Flash). Analyses include both individual score reliability and aggregated reliability, allowing us to distinguish metrics potentially useful for real-time adaptation from those that retain their value only in aggregated analyses. The results demonstrate that metric reliability cannot be considered a default property in interpretive domains. The lack of stability at the level of individual scores precludes the interpretation of such scores as indicators of user state in real-time adaptive systems, even if these metrics demonstrate stability after aggregation. At the same time, the study indicates that individually unstable metrics can retain analytical utility in post-hoc studies, identifying rules governing interactions and their relationships with user experience parameters such as satisfaction, trust, and engagement. The main contribution of this work, besides quantifying the severity of the problem (only 31 of 213 metrics met the criteria), is the proposal of a replicable evaluation framework, enabling measurable evaluations of metric applicability. This approach supports more responsible AI design of adaptive systems, in which the interpretation of results requires explicit validation of reliability and monitoring for violations over time.
arXiv:2605.16230v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Magnetic order is a fundamental property of materials, governing collective behavior and enabling a broad range of functionalities. Yet magnetic structure remains difficult to determine: experiments are costly and specialized, while first-principles methods often struggle with the noncollinear and incommensurate orders found in real materials. Here we introduce magnetic structure network (MSN), an E(3) equivariant graph neural network that predicts both collinear and non-collinear magnetic structures directly from atomic crystal structures, trained directly on experimentally determined structures from MAGNDATA. By proposing the primitive modulated structure representation (PMSR), we are able to encode commensurate and incommensurate structures in a unified way without symmetry assumptions. The model achieves strong performance across all modulation components and reconstructs experimental magnetic structures with high fidelity. Our approach provides a scalable framework for rapid magnetic structure prediction and opens a route to data-driven discovery of magnetic materials.
arXiv:2605.15437v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Extensive data processing is becoming commonplace in many fields of science. Distributing data to processing sites and providing methods to share the data with collaborators efficiently has become essential. The Open Science Data Federation (OSDF) builds upon the successful StashCache project to create a global data access network. The OSDF expands the StashCache project to add new data origins and caches, access methods, monitoring, and accounting mechanisms. Additionally, the OSDF has become an integral part of the U.S. national cyberinfrastructure landscape due to the sharing requirements of recent NSF solicitations, which the OSDF is uniquely positioned to enable. The OSDF continues to be utilized by many research collaborations and individual users, which pull the data to many research infrastructures and projects.
arXiv:2605.15341v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLMs are increasingly deployed in autonomous laboratories, under the assumption that their domain priors and reasoning over iterative feedback let them converge on good designs in fewer iterations than feedback-only baselines. Current iterative scientific design benchmarks, however, score only outcome snapshots at fixed horizons. This leaves the learning trajectory unmeasured, even though the trajectory is what captures learning efficiency, where each iteration saved is a real saving in cost and time. Motivated by this, we examine three evaluation choices that change the conclusions one draws about LLM learning efficiency in iterative scientific design: what to measure, what baseline to compare against, and what to ground against. We introduce LEAPBench, Learning Efficiency in Adaptive Processes, a 55-task framework that pairs a best-so-far area under the curve (AUC) trajectory metric with a classical Bayesian-optimization reference and an audit grounded in published literature. Applied to eight contemporary LLMs, switching from final-outcome to trajectory scoring changes the best-model decision on 53% of tasks at matched horizons, and exposes efficiency gains overlooked by outcome-based scoring. LLMs do not outperform a classical Bayesian baseline. On 16 biology tasks where the oracle's reward signal is aligned with configurations from the published-best design, domain-aware prompting leads to LLM choices that match the published-best's approximately 10 percentage points less often than domain-agnostic prompting at iteration 30. The pattern is sharpest on 6 tasks where the literature-typical and published-best configurations diverge, and domain-agnostic prompting matches the published-best more often on all 6. The trajectory metric also doubles as a tractable training target. Offline reinforcement learning with the metric as a reward improves performance on 14 of 21 held-out tasks.
arXiv:2605.15958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Energy system models are increasingly dependent on representative climate input. Yet, a fundamental mismatch persists between the hundreds of simulated years often used in climate science and the handful of years that computationally demanding power system models can process. Current practice, including ENTSO-E's European Resource Adequacy Assessment, relies on climate year selections that have not been validated against explicit representativeness criteria. This risks biased investment decisions and blind spots for plausible weather conditions. This study proposes simulated annealing as an optimisation method for selecting representative subsets of complete climate years from large climate ensembles. Representativeness is quantified using the seasonal sliced Wasserstein distance, a metric from optimal transport theory that captures representativeness on marginal distributions, inter-variable correlations, and seasonal structure simultaneously. We evaluate simulated annealing against the alternative methods random search, filtered random search, and K-Medoids clustering across three test cases spanning the Netherlands and Europe, using 180 climate years from the Pan-European Climate Database as a reference. Simulated annealing consistently produces the most representative subsets and outperforms all compared methods. Simulated annealing achieves an effective sample size four to five times the actual subset size. The resulting subsets are roughly 2.5--3.5 times more representative than current ENTSO-E practice. The method is application-agnostic and its output can serve as a validated climate data input to any subsequent (energy) impact study.