arXiv:2605.16249v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Entanglement and interference are among the most fundamental properties of quantum mechanics. In this work, we investigate the role and power of interference in the context of detecting entanglement. We do so from a computational complexity lens by proving that unentanglement gives no additional power to stoquastic Merlin-Arthur verification. For every polynomial number of provers $k=k(n)$, \[ \text{StoqMa}(k)=\text{StoqMa} . \] Conceptually, the proof separates the role of entanglement from the role of interference: once destructive interference is ruled out by stoquasticity, the product-state constraint can be absorbed into a polynomially larger one-witness stoquastic verification. The main analytic ingredient is a positive, value-based de Finetti theorem for separately symmetric extensions. If $M$ is an entrywise nonnegative positive semidefinite contraction on $A_1\otimes\cdots\otimes A_k$, then the nonnegative product value of $M$ is approximated to additive error $\epsilon$ by the largest eigenvalue of \[ \Pi_R^{<k} (M_{A_{1,1}\cdots A_{k-1,1}A_k}\otimes I) \Pi_R^{<k}, \qquad R=O\!\left(\frac{k^2\sum_i\log\dim A_i}{\epsilon^3}\right), \] where $\Pi_R^{<k}$ is the operator on $A_1^{\otimes R} \otimes \cdots \otimes A_{k-1}^{\otimes R} \otimes A_k$ projecting to the subspace $\mathrm{Sym}^R(A_1) \otimes \cdots \otimes \mathrm{Sym}^{R}(A_{k-1}) \otimes A_k$. The spectral relaxation is then realized as an actual one-witness stoquastic verifier. After replacing the uniform permutation averages in the symmetric projectors by inverse-polynomially close dyadic inverse-invariant averages. Consequently, \[ \text{StoqMa}(k)=\text{StoqMa}\subseteq\text{AM}\cap\text{PP}\subseteq\text{PSPACE} . \] The positive de Finetti theorem is isolated as a standalone technique and may be useful in other nonnegative tensor-optimization and stoquastic-verification settings.
Science Journals
arXiv:2412.03932v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper develops a physics-informed scenario approach for safety verification of nonlinear systems using barrier certificates (BCs) to ensure that system trajectories remain within safe regions over an infinite time horizon. Designing BCs often relies on an accurate dynamics model; however, such models are often imprecise due to the model complexity involved, particularly when dealing with highly nonlinear systems. In such cases, while scenario approaches effectively address the safety problem using collected data to construct a guaranteed BC for the unknown dynamical system, they often require solving an optimization problem with substantial amounts of data. To address this, we propose a physics-informed scenario approach that selects data samples such that the outputs of the physics-based model and the observed data are sufficiently close. This approach guides the scenario optimization process to eliminate redundant samples and potentially reduce the required dataset size. We validate our approach through three case studies, showcasing its practical application in reducing the required data.
arXiv:2504.00289v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The release of top-performing open-weight LLMs has cemented China's role as a leading force in AI development. Do these models support languages spoken in China? Or do they support the same languages as models developed in the United States or in Europe? Comparing multilingual capabilities is important for two reasons. First, language ability provides insights into pre-training data curation, and thus into resource allocation and development priorities. Second, Chinese model developers need to navigate the tension between serving a linguistically diverse population domestically, and optimizing for globally visible benchmarks that are predominantly English. We investigate Chinese model developers' priorities through a comparative study of Chinese-developed and Western-developed open-weight LLMs, on 21 language variants including Asian regional, Chinese, and European languages. Our experiments on Information Parity and reading comprehension show Chinese models' performance across these languages correlates strongly (r=0.93) with their Western counterparts, with the sole exception being better Mandarin. Chinese-developed models are good at French and German, but they sometimes cannot identify languages spoken by Chinese minorities such as Kazakh and Uyghur. Overall, all open-weight LLMs we study have a similar multilingual performance profile, despite the diverse linguistic and cultural contexts the model developers operated within. We interpret the homogenization as consistent with the influence of global benchmarking practices and shared training resources. Rather than treating current language support as inevitable, our results highlight multilingual development as a space of prioritization and trade-offs, with implications for model developers, policymakers, and users.
arXiv:2507.14200v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Existing multi-LLM collaboration systems often encounter scalability challenges when integrating new LLMs and tasks, leading to suboptimal performance. To address this, we propose SMCS, a Scalable Multi-LLM Collaboration System designed to effectively coordinate multiple open-source LLMs. The system consists of two core components: a Retrieval-based Prior Selection (RPS) module, which dynamically selects the most suitable LLMs for each input, and an Exploration-Exploitation-Driven Posterior Enhancement (EPE) module, which fosters response diversity and selects high-quality outputs through a hybrid scoring mechanism. Experiments on eight mainstream benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our system: by integrating fifteen open-source LLMs, SMCS outperforms prevailing closed-source LLMs, e.g., GPT-4.1(+5.36%) and GPT-o3-mini(+5.28%) across multiple tasks. Remarkably, it even exceeds the average of best results on different datasets with open-source LLMs (+2.86%), significantly advancing the empirical performance frontier of open-source collaboration. The code is released at https://github.com/magent4aci/SMCS.
arXiv:2503.16589v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A key trait of stochastic optimizers is that multiple runs of the same optimizer in attempting to solve the same problem can produce different results. As a result, their performance is evaluated over several repeats, or runs, on the problem. However, the accuracy of the estimated performance metrics depends on the number of runs and should be studied using statistical tools. We present a statistical analysis of the common metrics, and develop guidelines for experiment design to measure the optimizer's performance using these metrics to a high level of confidence and accuracy. To this end, we first discuss the confidence interval of the metrics and how they are related to the number of runs of an experiment. We then derive a lower bound on the number of repeats in order to guarantee achieving a given accuracy in the metrics. Using this bound, we propose an algorithm to adaptively adjust the number of repeats needed to ensure the accuracy of the evaluated metric. Our simulation results demonstrate the utility of our analysis and how it allows us to conduct reliable benchmarking as well as hyperparameter tuning and prevent us from drawing premature conclusions regarding the performance of stochastic optimizers.
arXiv:2605.16012v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: BEDT-TTF-based organic conductors host a number of ground states, tuned by electron repulsion from Mott and charge ordered insulators to superconductors. Knowing charge distribution on the molecular sites in the insulating state of these materials is a key to understanding the origin of these ground states. We survey and discuss the C=C stretching modes in BEDT-TTF based molecular conductors. These molecular vibrations are extremely crucial in characterization of charge-ordered insulators, and are recently linked to superconductivity in some compounds. Focusing on the known examples of BEDT-TTF$^{+0.5}$ salts, we analyse the reliability of the C=C stretching modes for the determination of charge ordering and absolute site charge. Considering the charge-ordered states, a prominent shift in frequency of 141 cm$^{-1}$ per elementary charge $e$ for $\nu_{27}(b_{1u})$ and 98 cm$^{-1}$$e$ for $\nu_2$($a_g$) can be clearly realised, however, the distribution resulting from different compounds span over 20 cm$^{-1}$. For nominal BEDT-TTF$^{+0.5}$ compounds, the distribution of the resonance also extends around 20 cm$^{-1}$, yielding an unexpected large uncertainty of $\Delta\rho~\approx~(~\pm~0.045)e$, which is presumably due to the influence of small differences in the structure. This highlights the limitations of charge-frequency relations to detect small deviations in absolute charge values on molecular lattice sites, and emphasises on the use of the relations to estimate charge-ordering, rather than absolute site charge.
arXiv:2605.15734v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The use of large language models to assess user states in conversational and adaptive systems is based on the assumption that the metrics used for such assessment are stable and interpretable at the level of individual scores. This paper empirically tests this assumption, focusing on the psychometric reliability of artificial intelligence (AI) measures of user states. This study employed replication evaluation procedures to assess the repeatability of a broad set of metrics across three different bimodal large language models (GPT-4o audio, Gemini 2.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5 Flash). Analyses include both individual score reliability and aggregated reliability, allowing us to distinguish metrics potentially useful for real-time adaptation from those that retain their value only in aggregated analyses. The results demonstrate that metric reliability cannot be considered a default property in interpretive domains. The lack of stability at the level of individual scores precludes the interpretation of such scores as indicators of user state in real-time adaptive systems, even if these metrics demonstrate stability after aggregation. At the same time, the study indicates that individually unstable metrics can retain analytical utility in post-hoc studies, identifying rules governing interactions and their relationships with user experience parameters such as satisfaction, trust, and engagement. The main contribution of this work, besides quantifying the severity of the problem (only 31 of 213 metrics met the criteria), is the proposal of a replicable evaluation framework, enabling measurable evaluations of metric applicability. This approach supports more responsible AI design of adaptive systems, in which the interpretation of results requires explicit validation of reliability and monitoring for violations over time.
arXiv:2412.05887v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many open source software (OSS) projects need more human resources for maintenance, improvements, and sometimes even their survival. These needs allegedly apply even to vital OSS projects that can be seen as being a part of the world's critical infrastructures. To address this resourcing problem, new funding instruments for OSS projects have been established in recent years. The paper examines two such funding bodies for OSS and the projects they have funded. The focus of both funding bodies is on software security and cyber security in general. Based on qualitative thematic analysis, the results indicate that particularly OSS supply chains, network and cryptography libraries, programming languages, and operating systems and their low-level components have been funded and thus seen as critical in terms of cyber security. In addition to the qualitative results presented, the paper makes a contribution by connecting the research branches of critical infrastructure and sustainability of OSS projects. A further contribution is made by connecting the topic examined to recent cyber security regulations. Finally, an important argument is raised that neither cyber security nor project sustainability alone can entirely explain the rationales behind the funding decisions made by the two funding bodies.
arXiv:2510.25404v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Optimizing an experimental system can be extremely challenging when each experiment is expensive, time-consuming, or difficult to perform. Existing optimizers for expensive black-box problems, such as Bayesian optimization, are typically limited to numerical or categorical observations. They do not make use of broader domain knowledge, such as expert heuristics, relevant scientific papers, or similar previous experiments. Large language models (LLMs) can interpret this semantic information; however, even state-of-the-art LLMs struggle to reliably solve black-box optimization problems. We introduce SemanticOpt, a framework for semantic black-box optimization that equips LLMs with optimization capabilities by fine-tuning them on structured Bayesian optimization trajectories augmented with natural-language context. SemanticOpt jointly uses numerical and semantic evidence when proposing new experiments, while producing interpretable predictions aligned with Bayesian surrogate models. We construct a range of real-world optimization problems paired with semantic information to create a diverse benchmark for evaluating semantic black-box optimization. Across these domains, SemanticOpt outperforms both classical optimizers and existing LLM-based approaches on average when given relevant semantic information.
arXiv:2503.14852v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning (ML) has shown promise in vulnerability detection, but ML detectors may rely on irrelevant code features, causing them to highlight non-vulnerable lines as suspicious. Such misleading predictions increase developers' manual effort and may lead to incorrect patching strategies, motivating the need to identify untrustworthy predictions automatically. We present UntrustVul, an approach for detecting untrustworthy vulnerability predictions by identifying suspicious lines that are inherently unrelated to vulnerabilities. UntrustVul leverages patterns from historical vulnerable lines and flags predictions as untrustworthy when the highlighted lines neither match known vulnerability patterns nor influence lines that do. A line is considered vulnerability-irrelevant if it does not resemble historical vulnerabilities and all its successors in the data and control dependency graph are also vulnerability-irrelevant. The approach is designed conservatively to minimise misclassifying trustworthy predictions as untrustworthy. We evaluate UntrustVul on 115K predictions from four models across the BigVul, MegaVul, SARD, and PrimeVul datasets. Results show that UntrustVul achieves AUC scores of 70%-88% and F1-scores of 82%-94%, outperforming existing approaches by 6%-59% in AUC and 13%-92% in F1-score.
arXiv:2503.02597v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in perceiving and reasoning over multimodal inquiries, ushering in a new research era for foundation models. However, vision-language misalignment in MLLMs has emerged as a critical challenge, where the textual responses generated by these models are not factually aligned with the given text-image inputs. Existing efforts to address vision-language misalignment have focused on developing specialized vision-language connectors or leveraging visual instruction tuning from diverse domains. In this paper, we tackle this issue from a fundamental yet unexplored perspective by revisiting the core architecture of MLLMs. Most MLLMs are typically built on decoder-only LLMs consisting of a causal attention mechanism, which limits the ability of the earlier modalities (e.g., images) to incorporate information from the latter modalities (e.g., text). To address this problem a MLLM that unlocks causal attention into our proposed modality-mutual attention (MMA) to enable image tokens to attend to text tokens. This simple yet effective design allows MMA to achieve state-of-the-art performance in 12 multimodal understanding benchmarks (+6.2% on average across 3 LLMs backbones) without introducing additional parameters. Our MMA design is intended to be generic, allowing for applications across various modalities, and scalable to accommodate diverse multimodal scenarios.
arXiv:2605.16101v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Measurement is an important scientific activity. In most of science, including classical physics, is may be understood as a way of finding out about the physical world and representing the results numerically. No-go theorems show that measurement of quantum observables is not like that: the recorded outcome is typically created rather than revealed in a quantum measurement, in which case there is no objective fact about the observable's prior value. Other no-go theorems show that unitary quantum theory can generally neither explain nor even represent a unique recorded outcome, thereby threatening that outcome's objectivity. Methodological norms inherent in quantum physical practice nevertheless institute the objectivity, not only of unique recorded outcomes of quantum measurements, but also of non-quantum features of the world that physicists and other scientists take their models to represent.
arXiv:2510.10454v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) offer a generalizable approach for modeling patient trajectories, but suffer from the long and noisy nature of electronic health records (EHR) data in temporal reasoning. To address these challenges, we introduce Traj-CoA, a multi-agent system involving chain-of-agents for patient trajectory modeling. Traj-CoA employs a chain of worker agents to process EHR data in manageable chunks sequentially, distilling critical events into a shared long-term memory module, EHRMem, to reduce noise and preserve a comprehensive timeline. A final manager agent synthesizes the worker agents' summary and the extracted timeline in EHRMem to make predictions. In a zero-shot one-year lung cancer risk prediction task based on five-year EHR data, Traj-CoA outperforms baselines of four categories. Analysis reveals that Traj-CoA exhibits clinically aligned temporal reasoning, establishing it as a promisingly robust and generalizable approach for modeling complex patient trajectories. Implementation of Traj-CoA is available on https://github.com/zengsihang/Traj-CoA.
arXiv:2411.10037v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Effective usage of approximate circuits for various performance trade-offs requires accurate computation of error. MCAC is a novel model counting framework for exact computation of several average and worst-case error metrics that are used to evaluate approximate circuits. Unlike other methods in the literature, our framework uses the same error miter for all metrics. It requires a single synthesis of the system consisting of the exact and approximate circuits followed by a subtractor that finds the difference of the two outputs. Existing miter-based methods require multiple calls to the model counter, one for each output of the miter. MCAC uses the CNF formula of the system to compute all metrics. Our algorithm converts the formula to a tree and uses message passing to compute all metrics. We propose data structures to efficiently store and perform sparse computations required for conversion to a tree and message passing. Results for all the error metrics for several benchmark instances show a significant speedup over using off-the-shelf model counters along with specialized miters for each metric.
arXiv:2603.13864v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-world backdoor attacks often require poisoned datasets to be stored and transmitted before being used to compromise deep learning systems. However, in the era of big data, the inevitable use of lossy compression poses a fundamental challenge to invisible backdoor attacks. We find that triggers embedded in RGB images often become ineffective after the images are lossily compressed into binary bitstreams (e.g., JPEG files) for storage and transmission. As a result, the poisoned data lose its malicious effect after compression, causing backdoor injection to fail. In this paper, we highlight the necessity of explicitly accounting for the lossy compression process in backdoor attacks. This requires attackers to ensure that the transmitted binary bitstreams preserve malicious trigger information, so that effective triggers can be recovered in the decompressed data. Building on the region-of-interest (ROI) coding mechanism in image compression, we propose two poisoning strategies tailored to inevitable lossy compression. First, we introduce Universal Attack Activation, a universal method that uses sample-specific ROI masks to reactivate trigger information in binary bitstreams for learned image compression (LIC). Second, we present Compression-Adapted Attack, a new attack strategy that employs customized ROI masks to encode trigger information into binary bitstreams and is applicable to both traditional codecs and LIC. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of both strategies.
arXiv:2410.01990v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper explores alternative formulations of the Kolmogorov Superposition Theorem (KST) as a foundation for neural network design. The original KST formulation, while mathematically elegant, presents practical challenges due to its limited insight into the structure of inner and outer functions and the large number of unknown variables it introduces. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) leverage KST for function approximation, but they have faced scrutiny due to mixed results compared to traditional multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) and practical limitations imposed by the original KST formulation. To address these issues, we introduce ActNet, a scalable deep learning model that builds on the KST and overcomes many of the drawbacks of Kolmogorov's original formulation. We evaluate ActNet in the context of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), a framework well-suited for leveraging KST's strengths in low-dimensional function approximation, particularly for simulating partial differential equations (PDEs). In this challenging setting, where models must learn latent functions without direct measurements, ActNet consistently outperforms KANs across multiple benchmarks and is competitive against the current best MLP-based approaches. These results present ActNet as a promising new direction for KST-based deep learning applications, particularly in scientific computing and PDE simulation tasks.
arXiv:2603.03243v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present Whole-Body Mobile Manipulation Interface (HoMMI), a data collection and policy learning framework that learns whole-body mobile manipulation directly from robot-free human demonstrations. We augment UMI interfaces with egocentric sensing to capture the global context required for mobile manipulation, enabling portable, robot-free, and scalable data collection. However, naively incorporating egocentric sensing introduces a larger human-to-robot embodiment gap in both observation and action spaces, making policy transfer difficult. We explicitly bridge this gap with a cross-embodiment hand-eye policy design, including an embodiment agnostic visual representation; a relaxed head action representation; and a whole-body controller that realizes hand-eye trajectories through coordinated whole-body motion under robot-specific physical constraints. Together, these enable long-horizon mobile manipulation tasks requiring bimanual and whole-body coordination, navigation, and active perception. Results are best viewed on: https://hommi-robot.github.io
arXiv:2605.16179v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agricultural landscape segmentation in the Global South is challenging as it is characterized by fragmented plots, high intra-class variance, and a scarcity of labeled training data. Recent advances in segmentation have been made by Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). However, current approaches encounter critical context length bottlenecks and a domain alignment gap in understanding satellite features. We address these limitations through MAgSeg, a novel, decoder-free MLLM segmentation approach. MAgSeg is an architecturally efficient approach that enables standard MLLMs to perform segmentation of complex smallholder agricultural landscapes from high-resolution satellite imagery, without requiring auxiliary vision decoders. We introduce a novel instruction tuning data format designed to enable scalable fine-tuning and post-training on high resolution satellite imagery, which enables MAgSeg to learn from the global context of the image while generating text tokens for only a patch within the image. Extensive evaluations on datasets spanning three countries in the Global South demonstrate that MAgSeg significantly outperforms state-of-the-art MLLM baselines, offering a scalable solution to map smallholder agricultural environments.
arXiv:2509.22151v3 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Material node graphs are programs that generate the 2D channels of procedural materials, including geometry such as roughness and displacement maps, and reflectance such as albedo and conductivity maps. They are essential in computer graphics for representing the appearance of virtual 3D objects parametrically and at arbitrary resolution. In particular, their directed acyclic graph structure and intermediate states enable a modular, interpretable workflow for interactive appearance modeling. However, creating such graphs remains challenging and typically requires professional training. While recent neural program synthesis approaches attempt to simplify this process, they solely represent graphs as textual programs, failing to capture the inherently visual-spatial nature of node graphs that makes them accessible to humans. To address this gap, we present MultiMat, a multimodal program synthesis framework that leverages large multimodal models to process both visual and textual graph representations for improved generation of procedural material graphs. We train our models on a new dataset of production-quality procedural materials and combine them with a constrained tree search inference algorithm that ensures static correctness while efficiently navigating the program space. Our experimental results show that our multimodal program synthesis method is more efficient in both unconditional and conditional graph synthesis with higher visual quality and fidelity than text-only baselines, establishing new state-of-the-art performance.
arXiv:2603.15273v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Noble liquids, notably argon and xenon, are utilised as both detector media and as the detector target for dark matter and neutrino physics experiments. When the noble liquid is excited by particles, it scintillates vacuum ultraviolet light, which sensors then detect. A major focus of the detector development community is on producing precision light sensors for noble liquid detectors. We introduce a flash lamp to test VUV-sensitive light sensors with light at wavelengths observed at noble liquid detectors. This paper discusses the design and presents results from a flash lamp prototype operated at room temperature.
arXiv:2412.12636v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large-scale ML training jobs are frequently interrupted by hardware and software anomalies, failures, and management events. Existing solutions like checkpoint-restart or runtime reconfiguration suffer from long downtimes and degraded performance. We present TrainMover, a resilient LLM training runtime that leverages elastic and standby machines to handle interruptions with minimal downtime and zero memory overhead. To achieve these goals, TrainMover introduces three key techniques: two-phase, delta-based communication group setup; communication-free sandboxed warmup; and general standby design that enables failure recovery from any role. Our evaluation shows that TrainMover consistently achieves around 20 seconds of downtime when handling various interruptions at the 1024-GPU scale. TrainMover is projected to reduce wasted GPU hours by 55% compared to the best alternative, saving 1.4 million GPU-hours per week at the 64K-GPU scale.
arXiv:2605.16184v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Second-order methods offer an attractive path toward more sample-efficient LLM training, but their practical use is often blocked by the systems cost of maintaining and updating large matrix-based optimizer states. We introduce \textbf{Asteria}, a runtime system designed to remove this bottleneck by separating second-order optimization logic from the critical GPU training path. Rather than keeping all preconditioner state on the accelerator, Asteria dynamically distributes optimizer state across GPU memory, CPU memory, and optional NVMe storage according to architectural constraints and runtime pressure. It further uses training hooks to prepare shadow states in advance, allowing expensive inverse-root computations to proceed asynchronously on the host while GPU computation continues. For distributed training, Asteria employs a bounded-staleness protocol that limits synchronization frequency while preserving optimizer effectiveness through topology-aware coordination. We evaluate Asteria on both memory-constrained and distributed training settings. On a DGX Spark platform with a single GB10 GPU and 128GB unified memory, Asteria supports second-order training for a 1B-parameter language model. On multi-node GH200 systems, it lowers visible optimizer overhead, reduces recurring latency spikes, accelerates convergence in wall-clock time, and maintains the optimization advantages of SOAP and KL-Shampoo in a 7B-parameter language model. Our results suggest that second-order LLM training can be made practical not by simplifying the optimizer alone, but by rethinking how optimizer state, background computation, and distributed synchronization are managed at the runtime level.
arXiv:2603.13452v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Fairness in machine learning is predominantly evaluated through outcome-oriented metrics, such as Demographic parity, which measure whether predictions are statistically consistent across protected groups. However, these metrics cannot detect whether a model uses systematically different reasoning for different demographic groups, which violates procedural fairness principles. This problem is compounded by intersectionality, where models may appear fair on individual attributes (e.g., race) while exhibiting significant disparities for intersectional subgroups (e.g., race $\times$ gender), a phenomenon known as fairness gerrymandering. In this work, we introduce Multi-category Explanation Stability Disparity (MESD), a procedural fairness metric that quantifies disparities in explanation quality across intersectional subgroups formed by the Cartesian product of multiple protected attributes. MESD integrates three components, which are label-aware aggregation aligned with outcome-conditional fairness, empirical-Bayes shrinkage to stabilize estimates for small intersectional groups, and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) weighting to emphasize worst-case subgroup disparities. We integrate MESD within a multi-objective optimization framework (UEF) that jointly optimizes utility, outcome fairness, and procedural fairness using NSGA-II. We evaluated MESD and UEF on three benchmark datasets along with four state-of-the-art methods in several experiments, and we demonstrate that MESD reveals procedural disparities invisible to outcome metrics alone. We position our contribution within procedural justice theory and discuss implications for regulatory compliance and intersectional equity.
arXiv:2510.02278v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Modeling traffic dynamics is a critical challenge for urban computing, with applications from real-time traffic management to infrastructure planning. However, progress in this area is fundamentally constrained by a lack of large-scale public datasets that capture the subtle properties of real city road networks. Existing benchmarks are often limited by their small scale, reliance on sparse highway traffic sensors, absence of true road connectivity information, and lack of information about road properties. To address this issue, we introduce datasets representing fine-grained road networks of two major cities, which are unique in their scale (up to 100,000 road segments), use of real road connectivity, presence of time series measurements for both traffic speed and volume at a 5-minute resolution, and inclusion of rich static road attributes. These datasets enable in-depth analysis of spatiotemporal traffic patterns and can serve as benchmarks for various ML applications. As a practical demonstration of the utility of our datasets and the challenges they present, we use them for the task of traffic forecasting. The size of the real-world road networks in our datasets reveals significant scalability issues in current traffic forecasting models. To address them, we propose a simple and efficient baseline that not only scales to large road graphs but also achieves forecasting performance competitive with other established spatiotemporal models. We hope that the proposed datasets will serve as a foundational resource for a broad range of research in traffic modeling, urban computing, and smart city development.
arXiv:2605.06475v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a probabilistic approach for dating historical manuscript pages from visual features alone. Instead of aggregating centuries into classes as is standard in the previous literature, we pose dating as an evidential deep regression problem over a continuous year axis, allowing our neural network to output a full predictive distribution with decomposed aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a single forward pass. Our architecture combines an EfficientNet-B2 backbone with a Normal-Inverse-Gamma (NIG) output head trained with a joint negative-log-likelihood and evidence-regularization objective. On the DIVA-HisDB benchmark (150 pages, 3 medieval codices, 151,936 patches), our model scores a test MAE of 5.4 years, well below the 50-year century-label supervision granularity, with 93\% of patches within 5 years and 97\% within 10 years. Our approach achieves \textbf{PICP=92.6\%}, the best calibration among all compared methods, in a single forward pass, outperforming MC Dropout (PICP=88.2\%, 50 passes) and Deep Ensembles (PICP=79.7\%, 5 models) at $5\times$ lower inference cost. Uncertainty decomposition shows aleatoric uncertainty is a strong predictor of dating error (Spearman $\rho=0.729$), and a selective prediction about the most certain 20\% of patches can provide \textbf{0.5 years MAE}. We show that predicted uncertainty increases as image degradation worsens, spatial decomposition maps explain which script regions cause aleatoric uncertainty, and page-level aggregation reduces MAE to 4.5 years with $\rho=0.905$ between uncertainty and page-level error.