arXiv:2604.20127v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Failures in complex systems often emerge through gradual degradation and the propagation of stress across interacting components rather than through isolated shocks. Democratic systems exhibit similar dynamics, where weakening institutions can trigger cascading deterioration in related institutional structures. Traditional reliability and survival models typically estimate failure risk based on the current system state but do not explicitly capture how degradation propagates through institutional networks over time. This paper introduces a trajectory-aware reliability modeling framework based on Dynamic Causal Neural Autoregression (DCNAR). The framework first estimates a causal interaction structure among institutional indicators and then models their joint temporal evolution to generate forward trajectories of system states. Failure risk is defined as the probability that predicted trajectories cross predefined degradation thresholds within a fixed horizon. Using longitudinal institutional indicators, we compare DCNAR-based trajectory risk models with discrete-time hazard and Cox proportional hazards models. Results show that trajectory-aware modeling consistently outperforms Cox models and improves risk prediction for several propagation-driven institutional failures. These findings highlight the importance of modeling dynamic system interactions for reliability analysis and early detection of systemic degradation.
Science Journals
arXiv:2605.15577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the High-Level Trigger (HLT) of both electron-positron and hadron collision experiments, the tracking process for large-volume gaseous detectors typically consumes a latency of hundreds of milliseconds. Upgrades of existing experiments and the development of next-generation facilities demand enhanced HLT tracking performance: handling higher detector occupancy and suppressing latency. To address high occupancy conditions, a novel HLT tracking algorithm based on track segments is proposed. This method involves constructing a pattern bank comprising 11 pre-defined patterns, optimizing edge-matrix formation using position, momentum, and timing criteria, and merging stereo superlayer segments to improve track consistency. These measures significantly reduce the number of stored segments and the size of the edge matrix, thereby lowering the complexity of global tracking. Even at 25\% occupancy, the number of elements for global tracking is reduced to approximately 400-500, while the density of the edge matrix remains below 1\%. With the depth-first search within connected components, the simulation results show that the algorithm maintains stable performance with occupancy ranging from 5\% to 25\%, achieving a data compression ratio of approximately 50\% to 70\%. Validation against the STCF offline reconstruction algorithm confirms that the HLT algorithm preserves high signal-hit retention without introducing significant adverse effects on offline tracking efficiency or on the reconstruction. These results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can retain high-quality signal hits across a broad range of occupancy levels, indicating a strong potential for further development and adaptation to even more challenging, high-luminosity experimental conditions.
arXiv:2602.08843v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many fundamental problems in computational geometry admit no algorithm running in $o(n \log n)$ time for $n$ planar input points, via classical reductions from sorting. Prominent examples include the computation of convex hulls, quadtrees, onion layer decompositions, Euclidean minimum spanning trees, KD-trees, Voronoi diagrams, and decremental closest-pair. A classical result shows that, given $n$ points sorted along a single direction, the convex hull can be constructed in linear time. Subsequent works established that for all of the other above problems, this information does not suffice. In 1989, Aggarwal, Guibas, Saxe, and Shor asked: Under which conditions can a Voronoi diagram be computed in $o(n \log n)$ time? Since then, the question of whether sorting along TWO directions enables a $o(n \log n)$-time algorithm for such problems has remained open and has been repeatedly mentioned in the literature. In this paper, we introduce the Presort Hierarchy: A problem is 1-Presortable if, given a sorting along one axis, it permits a (possibly randomised) $o(n \log n)$-time algorithm. It is 2-Presortable if sortings along both axes suffice. It is Presort-Hard otherwise. Our main result is that quadtrees, and by extension Delaunay triangulations, Voronoi diagrams, and Euclidean minimum spanning trees, are 2-Presortable: we present an algorithm with expected running time $O(n \sqrt{\log n})$. This addresses the longstanding open problem posed by Aggarwal, Guibas, Saxe, and Shor (albeit randomised). We complement this result by showing that some of the other above geometric problems are also 2-Presortable or Presort-Hard.
arXiv:2507.08752v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate the propagation of initial value perturbations along the solution of a linear ordinary differential equation \( y'(t) = Ay(t) \). This propagation is analyzed using the relative error rather than the absolute error. Our focus is on the long-term behavior of this relative error, which differs significantly from that of the absolute error. The present paper is a practical sequel to the theoretical papers \cite{M1,M2} on the long-time behavior of the relative error: it includes applicative examples and important issues not addressed in \cite{M1,M2}. In addition, the present paper shows that understanding the long-term behavior provides insights into the growth of the relative error over all times, not just at large times. Therefore, it represents a crucial and fundamental aspect of the conditioning of linear ordinary differential equations, with applications in, for example, non-normal dynamics.
arXiv:2605.15908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Natural images are continuous, yet most generative models synthesize them on discrete grids, limiting resolution-flexible generation. Continuous neural fields enable resolution-free rendering, but prior methods introduce continuity only at the decoding stage as an interpolation module, leaving the generative latent space discretized and reconstruction-oriented. We propose RaPD (Resolution-agnostic Pixel Diffusion), which performs diffusion in a continuous Neural Image Field (NIF) latent space. RaPD bridges this reconstruction-generation gap with Semantic Representation Guidance for generation-aware latent learning and a Coordinate-Queried Attention Renderer for coordinate-conditioned, scale-aware rendering. A single denoised latent can be rendered at arbitrary resolutions by changing only the query coordinates, keeping diffusion cost fixed. Experiments demonstrate superior generation quality and resolution scalability.
arXiv:2605.16250v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Distribution utilities are now expected to deliver bills that customers can actually read attach a defensible carbon number to every kWh sold and schedule load against grid stress and emissions constraints We propose an end-to-end framework that unifies four production-grade capabilities under one architectural roof a generative-AI agent that drafts each customers natural-language billing statement from structured numeric inputs under a constrained decoding policy a transformer-based forecaster that supplies the day-ahead consumption estimate with calibrated quantile bands
arXiv:2504.05451v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Traditional methods for view-invariant learning rely on controlled multi-view training data with minimal scene clutter. However, they struggle with in-the-wild videos that exhibit extreme viewpoint differences and share little visual content. We introduce ViewBridge, a framework for learning rich video representations in the presence of severe view-occlusions. We introduce a knowledge distillation objective that preserves action-centric semantics, together with a novel curriculum learning procedure that pairs incrementally more challenging views over time, thereby allowing smooth adaptation to extreme viewpoint differences. To sort training video segments for the proposed curriculum, we define a geometry-based metric that reflects their likely occlusion level. While training leverages multi-view data, at inference time, the input is an uncalibrated, single-viewpoint video. Evaluating our approach on two tasks -- temporal keystep grounding and fine-grained keystep recognition -- we outperform SOTA approaches across three datasets (Ego-Exo4D, LEMMA, EPFL-Smart-Kitchen-30). Project page: https://vision.cs.utexas.edu/projects/learning_view_distill/ .
arXiv:2311.14344v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This work presents a tensor-network formulation of the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) and several of its variants. The approach represents candidate tours with tensor-network layers, weights them by Boltzmann factors, and enforces constraints through explicit counting filters. This formalism also yields an explicit tensor-network marginal formula whose zero-temperature, exact-arithmetic limit identifies an optimal feasible tour through a sequential marginal rule. At finite $\tau$ and finite precision, the implemented extraction is a heuristic whose behavior depends on numerical contrast, calibration, and near-degeneracies. We adapt the construction to several generalizations of the TSP and apply it to the Job Reassignment Problem, as a representative industrial integration. The experiments are deliberately small and illustrative; they contextualize the method against exact and heuristic references but do not establish general computational superiority over specialized classical solvers.
arXiv:2605.16179v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agricultural landscape segmentation in the Global South is challenging as it is characterized by fragmented plots, high intra-class variance, and a scarcity of labeled training data. Recent advances in segmentation have been made by Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). However, current approaches encounter critical context length bottlenecks and a domain alignment gap in understanding satellite features. We address these limitations through MAgSeg, a novel, decoder-free MLLM segmentation approach. MAgSeg is an architecturally efficient approach that enables standard MLLMs to perform segmentation of complex smallholder agricultural landscapes from high-resolution satellite imagery, without requiring auxiliary vision decoders. We introduce a novel instruction tuning data format designed to enable scalable fine-tuning and post-training on high resolution satellite imagery, which enables MAgSeg to learn from the global context of the image while generating text tokens for only a patch within the image. Extensive evaluations on datasets spanning three countries in the Global South demonstrate that MAgSeg significantly outperforms state-of-the-art MLLM baselines, offering a scalable solution to map smallholder agricultural environments.
arXiv:2511.05297v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Digital Adoption Platforms (DAPs) have become essential tools for helping employees navigate complex enterprise software such as CRM, ERP, or HRMS systems. Companies like LemonLearning have shown how digital guidance can reduce training costs and accelerate onboarding. However, building and maintaining these interactive guides still requires extensive manual effort. Leveraging Large Language Models as virtual assistants is an appealing alternative, yet without a structured understanding of the target software, LLMs often hallucinate and produce unreliable answers. Moreover, most production-grade LLMs are black-box APIs, making fine-tuning impractical due to the lack of access to model weights. In this work, we introduce a Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation framework that automatically converts enterprise web applications into state-action knowledge graphs, enabling LLMs to generate grounded and context-aware assistance. The framework was co-developed with the AI enterprise RAKAM, in collaboration with Lemon Learning. We detail the engineering pipeline that extracts and structures software interfaces, the design of the graph-based retrieval process, and the integration of our approach into production DAP workflows. Finally, we discuss scalability, robustness, and deployment lessons learned from industrial use cases.
arXiv:2605.15381v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Non-bonded interactions govern structure, stability, and function across a wide range of solid-state materials, yet their chemical origins are often difficult to resolve from total energies alone. Here we generalize absolutely localized molecular orbital energy decomposition analysis to quantify and interpret non-bonded interactions within and between solids at the density functional theory level. Across molecular crystals, moir\'e heterobilayers, and layered perovskite heterostructures, this framework separates lattice-formation energies, interlayer binding energies, and band-structure changes into chemically intuitive contributions from frozen interactions, polarization, and charge transfer. The analysis reveals how dispersion controls polymorph stability in pharmaceutical crystals, how local stacking modulates interlayer coupling in MoS2/WSe2, and how alkali-cation substitution switches the quantum-well character of layered perovskite heterostructures. By connecting emergent solid-state properties to microscopic interaction mechanisms, this framework provides a chemically transparent basis for understanding and designing complex materials.
arXiv:2605.16230v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Magnetic order is a fundamental property of materials, governing collective behavior and enabling a broad range of functionalities. Yet magnetic structure remains difficult to determine: experiments are costly and specialized, while first-principles methods often struggle with the noncollinear and incommensurate orders found in real materials. Here we introduce magnetic structure network (MSN), an E(3) equivariant graph neural network that predicts both collinear and non-collinear magnetic structures directly from atomic crystal structures, trained directly on experimentally determined structures from MAGNDATA. By proposing the primitive modulated structure representation (PMSR), we are able to encode commensurate and incommensurate structures in a unified way without symmetry assumptions. The model achieves strong performance across all modulation components and reconstructs experimental magnetic structures with high fidelity. Our approach provides a scalable framework for rapid magnetic structure prediction and opens a route to data-driven discovery of magnetic materials.
arXiv:2605.15874v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Industrial Water Treatment Systems (IWTS) are safety critical cyber-physical infrastructures and due to increased connectivity, these systems are exposed to cyber threats that can manipulate process behaviour without creating obvious devices outliers. In particular, logic-layer deception anomalies can preserve numerically plausible measurements while breaking expected cause-and-effect relationships in the control process. These attacks are difficult to detect using threshold-based monitoring or require heavy server-oriented anomaly detection models. This paper explores the potential of Tiny Deep Learning (TinyDL) to provide lightweight on-device logic-level anomaly detection for resource constrained Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs). We propose a novel framework, TinyDL-based incremental LSTM (Ti-iLSTM) which optimises the memory and space foot print of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), to detect logic-layer inconsistencies in Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) based Industrial Water Treatment Systems (IWTS). Experiments on the publicly available SWaT dataset show that the optimised model achieves high detection performance (F1-score=0.983 and ROC-AUC=0.998). A deployment-style validation on the WADI dataset confirms that the proposed light-weight framework remains applicable beyond a single dataset. The research demonstrates that combining logic-aware supervision with Tiny Deep Learning (TinyDL) sequence learning creates an efficient and accurate anomaly detection suitable for resource constrained Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) in industrial environments.
arXiv:2605.12581v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Synthesising autonomous agents that can navigate uncertain environments while adhering to complex temporal constraints remains a fundamental challenge. While Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) provides a rigorous language for specifying such tasks, the inherent undecidability of qualitatively verifying LTL satisfaction in partially observable Markov decision processes renders quantitative synthesis difficult, especially when designing reliable reward signals for approximate solvers. In this paper, we bridge this gap with a novel, sound reward-shaping mechanism that dynamically generates belief-dependent rewards grounded in certified LTL satisfaction. By integrating this mechanism into an enhanced Monte Carlo Planning framework, we empower agents to navigate the `fog' of partial observability with a search process focused on maximising verifiable success. Our experiments demonstrate that this approach not only thrives in scenarios where existing solvers fail but also maintains effectiveness and scalability across diverse benchmark domains.
arXiv:2605.16253v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Ray tracing (RT) is a 3D graphics technique that offers highly realistic visuals. It is becoming prominent and accessible as GPU vendors have integrated dedicated ray tracing acceleration hardware. However, tracing millions of rays through 3D scenes consisting of high numbers of triangles in real time is challenging and requires expensive hardware. The main bottleneck in RT workloads is the expensive Bounding Volume Hierarchy (BVH) traversal task, which is a large tree structure that encodes the 3D scene. BVH traversal is a memory-bound problem, as the GPU threads spend most of their time reading tree node data from memory. In this work, we attack the memory latency bottleneck of ray tracing through prefetching. We propose a novel hardware prefetcher, named Tree Traversal Prefetcher (TTP), for ray tracing. The main idea is to leverage the existing tree traversal stack in the RT units for highly accurate prefetching. In particular, TTP prefetches nodes using the addresses already available on the hardware traversal stacks of each thread. For DFS (Depth-first search) based traversal, prefetches are generated when nodes are being popped consecutively from the traversal stack, potentially corresponding to upward traversal through the tree. We evaluate TTP on a cycle-level simulator, Vulkan-sim 2.0, and show that it achieves 1.48x speedup on average (up to 1.89x) compared to the baseline, with nearly negligible hardware overhead. TTP achieves 98.92% average L1 accuracy, which is the ratio of the prefetched blocks being actually referenced by demand loads. The coverage, computed as the ratio of L1 miss reduction over baseline L1 misses, is 31.54%, correlating well with the achieved speedup.
arXiv:2512.19179v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Efficiently harnessing GPU compute is critical to improving user experience and reducing operational costs in large language model (LLM) services. However, current inference engine schedulers overlook the attention backend's sensitivity to request-length heterogeneity within a batch. As state-of-the-art models now support context windows exceeding 128K tokens, this once-tolerable inefficiency has escalated into a primary system bottleneck, causing severe performance degradation through GPU underutilization and increased latency. We present CascadeInfer, a runtime system that dynamically reschedules requests across multiple instances serving the same LLM to mitigate per-instance length heterogeneity. CascadeInfer partitions these instances into length-specialized groups, each handling requests within a designated length range, naturally forming a pipeline as requests flow through them. CascadeInfer devises a dynamic programming algorithm to efficiently find the stage partition with the best QoE, employs runtime range refinement together with decentralized load (re)balance both across and within groups, achieving a balanced and efficient multi-instance service. Our evaluation shows that, under the same configuration, CascadeInfer reduces end-to-end latency by up to 67% and tail latency by up to 69%, while improving overall system throughput by up to 2.89 times compared to the state-of-the-art multi-instance scheduling systems.
arXiv:2605.16255v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Demand for AI accelerators is rapidly increasing rack power density, with projections approaching 1MW per deployment by 2027. This poses a major challenge for datacenter power delivery designers. As power densities increase, a datacenter designed for a different target density may strand power, i.e., may be unable to use all the power that its delivery hierarchy has provisioned. Designs must remain efficient over long datacenter lifetimes and multiple hardware generations. Power utilization is particularly important as grid power capacity is a scarce resource in the AI era. Designing an efficient power delivery hierarchy for the long run is difficult because rack placement feasibility, workload impact, and cost depend jointly on electrical topology, deployment granularity, placement policy, power oversubscription, and workload mix. Moreover, each of these factors evolve over time, have inter-dependencies across multiple resource dimensions, and generally do not lend themselves to closed-form analysis. To address this challenge, we develop a framework for evaluating datacenter power delivery designs using throughput, power, and cost metrics over realistic arrival, oversubscription, and decommissioning sequences. The framework combines projection models for GPU, compute, and storage deployments with operational factors grounded in production data from Microsoft Azure. Our results show that multi-resource stranding materially changes deployable capacity, effective capital expenditure, and delivered performance, and quantify how rising density from rack- and pod-scale AI systems shapes these outcomes. For AI datacenter design, the relevant planning objective is not installed megawatts, but deployable capacity over time.
arXiv:2605.16236v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We theoretically investigate acoustic spin resonance in a spatially homogeneous spinor polariton condensate. A longitudinal acoustic wave generates a time-periodic strain-induced effective magnetic field acting on the condensate pseudospin. When this field is transverse to the static in-plane linear-polarization splitting, it resonantly drives polarization oscillations. We show that spin-dependent interactions shift the resonance and produce nonlinear line shapes, while gain, reservoir dynamics, and spin relaxation make the response dissipative and history-dependent, producing amplitude hysteresis. In the presence of lifetime anisotropy, the condensate can develop a bifurcated stationary state with finite circular polarization, and a resonant acoustic drive can switch between the corresponding out-of-plane branches. A Zeeman splitting provides an additional conservative knob for tuning the resonance frequency. Our results identify coherent acoustic driving as a route to resonant, nonlinear, and switchable control of polariton pseudospin dynamics.
arXiv:2509.22151v3 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Material node graphs are programs that generate the 2D channels of procedural materials, including geometry such as roughness and displacement maps, and reflectance such as albedo and conductivity maps. They are essential in computer graphics for representing the appearance of virtual 3D objects parametrically and at arbitrary resolution. In particular, their directed acyclic graph structure and intermediate states enable a modular, interpretable workflow for interactive appearance modeling. However, creating such graphs remains challenging and typically requires professional training. While recent neural program synthesis approaches attempt to simplify this process, they solely represent graphs as textual programs, failing to capture the inherently visual-spatial nature of node graphs that makes them accessible to humans. To address this gap, we present MultiMat, a multimodal program synthesis framework that leverages large multimodal models to process both visual and textual graph representations for improved generation of procedural material graphs. We train our models on a new dataset of production-quality procedural materials and combine them with a constrained tree search inference algorithm that ensures static correctness while efficiently navigating the program space. Our experimental results show that our multimodal program synthesis method is more efficient in both unconditional and conditional graph synthesis with higher visual quality and fidelity than text-only baselines, establishing new state-of-the-art performance.
arXiv:2605.15713v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Legged manipulators extend robotic capabilities beyond static manipulation by integrating agile locomotion with versatile arm control. However, achieving precise manipulation while maintaining coordinated locomotion remains a major challenge. This work presents a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework for dynamic pick-and-place tasks using a quadruped equipped with a 6-DOF robotic arm. The framework incorporates an explicit mass estimation module enabling adaptive whole-body control for objects with varying weights. In simulation, the system achieves an 86.05% success rate with payloads up to 2.3 kg. The approach is further validated through real-world experiments across six representative scenarios with controlled variations in object physical properties (size and mass) and task heights. Specifically, within a wide vertical workspace ranging from ground level to 1.1~m-high tabletops, the system demonstrates an average success rate of 73.3% for payloads up to 1.3 kg, with an average execution time of 4.06 s. Unlike prior works that handle lightweight objects and execute pick-and-place motions with slow, piecewise motions, the proposed framework exploits concurrent locomotion and manipulation for dynamic, continuous execution. These results demonstrate the potential of quadrupedal mobile manipulators for adaptive, whole-body pick-and-place with heavier payloads and extended workspaces.
arXiv:2605.15714v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This position paper argues that the machine learning community should prioritize early-stage quality assurance in annotation pipelines over the prevailing practice of late-stage validation. Data quality bottlenecks increasingly limit foundation model improvement, yet quality assurance research focuses almost exclusively on validation methods rather than validation timing. When validation occurs, not merely what methods are employed, fundamentally determines both error rates and annotation costs. This temporal neglect is puzzling given the well-established "shift-left" principle from software engineering, where empirical studies demonstrate 4--100x cost multipliers for defects detected in later stages (Boehm, 1981; Shull et al., 2002). Annotation pipelines exhibit analogous dynamics: errors caught before annotation begins cost a fraction of those discovered after review cycles complete. We propose a taxonomy of three QA trigger points, namely pre-annotation (T0), post-annotation (T1), and post-review (T2), that decompose annotation workflows into discrete validation opportunities. A parametric error-propagation model formalizes when timing affects final error rates versus only economics, making timing a measurable design variable rather than a configuration afterthought. A survey of 47 recent papers reveals that only 4% report when validation occurs, a striking gap given timing's demonstrated impact in adjacent fields. Without explicit attention to QA timing, the community risks optimizing validation methods while ignoring the structural variable that may matter most. Acting on this position requires three steps: researchers should report QA timing configurations alongside validation methods; annotation platforms should expose timing as a first-class parameter; and the community should run controlled experiments that measure stage-specific detection rates directly.
arXiv:2605.16181v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training data attribution (TDA) for music generation must answer two questions that copyright analysis requires, namely which training songs influence a generated output and along which musical aspects the influence operates. Existing methods reduce influence to a single scalar, without revealing which musical aspects are dominant in that influence. We propose ARIA, a framework that decomposes attribution along musical aspects (five for symbolic music, three for audio) and pairs the decomposition with reliability diagnostics computed from the segment-level score matrix. It measures within-group similarity among the top-K attributed tracks against random reference groups drawn from the training pool, and diagnoses the score matrix through its singular value decomposition and column statistics. On a symbolic-music model where attribution ground truth is available through counterfactual retraining, the reliability diagnostics rank four attribution methods identically to that ground truth. On an audio music generation model, ARIA reveals attribution behaviors that vary substantially across TDA methods, flags score matrices whose retrieved tracks are nearly identical across queries rather than reflecting per-query attribution, and characterizes embedding-similarity retrieval baselines by the musical aspect each encoder surfaces. Together, ARIA produces per-aspect attribution evidence aligned with the musical aspects considered under the idea-expression distinction in copyright analysis.
arXiv:2605.16239v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce a dynamics-level approach to watermarking generative models. Rather than embedding signals into model weights or outputs, we embed the watermark directly into the learned continuous dynamics -- the velocity field of a flow matching model. We formulate this as random coding over a continuous channel: a key-dependent perturbation is added during training, and the message is recovered at detection time from black-box queries. The perturbation is designed to leave the generated distribution unchanged. Experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 across different architectures confirm reliable message recovery, preserved generation quality, and chance-level decoding accuracy without the secret key.
arXiv:2603.24338v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Interleaved ADCs are critical for applications requiring multi-gigasample per second (GS/s) rates, but their performance is often limited by offset, gain, and timing skew mismatches across the sub-ADCs. We propose exact but compact expressions that describe the impact of each of those non-idealities on the output spectrum. We derive the distribution of the power of the induced spurs and replicas, critical for yield-oriented derivation of sub-ADC specifications. Finally, we provide a practical example in which calibration step sizes are derived under the constraint of a target production yield.
arXiv:2605.06475v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a probabilistic approach for dating historical manuscript pages from visual features alone. Instead of aggregating centuries into classes as is standard in the previous literature, we pose dating as an evidential deep regression problem over a continuous year axis, allowing our neural network to output a full predictive distribution with decomposed aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a single forward pass. Our architecture combines an EfficientNet-B2 backbone with a Normal-Inverse-Gamma (NIG) output head trained with a joint negative-log-likelihood and evidence-regularization objective. On the DIVA-HisDB benchmark (150 pages, 3 medieval codices, 151,936 patches), our model scores a test MAE of 5.4 years, well below the 50-year century-label supervision granularity, with 93\% of patches within 5 years and 97\% within 10 years. Our approach achieves \textbf{PICP=92.6\%}, the best calibration among all compared methods, in a single forward pass, outperforming MC Dropout (PICP=88.2\%, 50 passes) and Deep Ensembles (PICP=79.7\%, 5 models) at $5\times$ lower inference cost. Uncertainty decomposition shows aleatoric uncertainty is a strong predictor of dating error (Spearman $\rho=0.729$), and a selective prediction about the most certain 20\% of patches can provide \textbf{0.5 years MAE}. We show that predicted uncertainty increases as image degradation worsens, spatial decomposition maps explain which script regions cause aleatoric uncertainty, and page-level aggregation reduces MAE to 4.5 years with $\rho=0.905$ between uncertainty and page-level error.