arXiv:2601.16567v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Gravitational waves (GWs) in the $0.01\sim1$ Hz band encode unique signatures of the early universe and merging compact objects, but they are beyond the reach of existing observatories. Theoretical models suggest that the Moon could act as a resonant detector, but the unknown influence of its rugged surface and heterogeneous interior poses a challenge to the accurate modeling of its response. Here, we address this long-standing uncertainty by constructing the first high-resolution, two-dimensional model of the lunar GW response, more realistic than previous ones. We achieve this by combining high-fidelity spectral-element simulations with the analytical power of normal-mode perturbation theory, thereby resolving topographical effects down to 2 km grid spacing while maintaining the capacity to discern global free-oscillation patterns. This dual-methodology approach not only recovers the expected predominant quadrupole ($l=2$) oscillation mode, but also exposes a systematic signal amplification in thick-crust regions. This enhancement is traced by our normal-mode analysis to a mode-coupling process, in which the original quadrupolar oscillation induced by the passing GW distributes energy into a series of higher-order modes, the hybridized eigenmodes of a laterally heterogeneous Moon. In certain narrow frequency ranges, we observe up to tenfold amplification spanning into the deci-hertz band, highlighting the power of numerical simulations in resolving these structurally fine-tuned features for designing future detectors. Our work establishes the Moon as a resonant GW detector albeit its complex topographical structures, and the resulting amplification maps provide quantitative guide for the optimal landing site selection.
Science Journals
arXiv:2605.22319v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: The discovery of altermagnetism offers new opportunities for exploring novel quantum states and developing spintronic devices for enabling momentum dependent spin splitting in compensated systems, while zero net magnetization limit its manipulability using conventional magnetic method. Here, we propose 2D alternating ferrimagnetism,a phase merging alternating momentum dependent spin splitting with a finite net magnetization. A tight binding model reveals that alternating ferrimagnetism originates from uncompensated magnetization in altermagnets, facilitating concurrent net magnetization and alternating spin splitting. First principles calculations and Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate stable alternating ferrimagnetism in strained and Cr substiting V2Te2O, which exhibit strain tunable net magnetization, reversable half metallicity and valley polarization, accompanied by long range magnetic order above room temperature. By combining altermagnetic and ferromagnetic properties, alternating ferrimagnetism expand the 2D magnetism landscape and offer pathways for energy efficient spintronic applications.
arXiv:2605.22394v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Efficiently recovering dynamic correlation in strongly correlated systems without incurring prohibitive computational costs remains a central challenge in quantum chemistry. In this Perspective, we review and benchmark methods capable of recovering dynamic correlation for multireference wave functions exclusively from low-order reduced density matrices and densities. These approaches require at most the two-electron reduced density matrix of the reference wave function and fall into two categories: density functional theory (DFT)-based methods and purely ab initio multireference adiabatic connection (AC) methods. The former include MC-srDFT, which recovers dynamic correlation through a short-range exchange-correlation functional depending on the charge and spin densities, as well as MC-PDFT and MC-srPDFT, which employ translated functionals that additionally depend on the on-top pair density. Within the post-CASSCF framework, we perform a direct, head-to-head benchmark of these approaches under identical computational settings (including active spaces and basis sets) against challenging multireference problems, including singlet-triplet gaps in organic biradicals, excitation energies, and spin-state splittings in iron complexes. Among the DFT-based methods, MC-srPDFT emerges as the most accurate, underscoring the benefit of incorporating the on-top pair density. However, all considered DFT-based methods fail to provide reliable spin-state energetics for transition-metal complexes. Conversely, linearized AC0 rivals or outperforms more computationally expensive second-order perturbation theory approaches across all benchmark sets. We discuss these findings in the context of alternative formulations and existing literature, highlighting critical limitations and identifying promising directions for the future development of scalable multireference methods.
arXiv:2605.22751v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: As generative image models evolve rapidly, the perceptual gap between generated and real images continues to narrow, making AI-generated image detection increasingly challenging. Many existing methods exploit frequency-domain cues for detection, typically described as frequency-domain artifacts or high-frequency discrepancies. However, the specific and recurring spectral regularities remain insufficiently understood and characterized. In this paper, we systematically analyze the one-dimensional radial log-power spectra of real and generated images. We find that generated images do not necessarily exhibit higher or lower energy across the entire spectrum or high-band range. Instead, their spectra deviate from the power-law decay and show an anomalous uplift in the ultra-high-frequency tail. We term this phenomenon spectral tail uplift. We further attribute this phenomenon to nonlinear harmonic accumulation in trained generative models, suggesting that it can serve as a structural cue across generative architectures. Based on this observation, we propose Spectral Tail Auxiliary Learning (STAL), a frequency-domain auxiliary supervision framework for generalizable AI-generated image detection. STAL transfers spectral-tail cues from a tail-aware frequency teacher to a spatial detector during training, while all frequency-domain modules are discarded at inference time. Consequently, STAL introduces no inference overhead. Extensive experiments on 9 public datasets show that STAL achieves strong generalization and stability across generators, data distributions, and real-world scenarios.
arXiv:2605.21498v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: ECDSA signatures form the bedrock of blockchain transaction authentication, yet their security critically depends on proper nonce generation. We uncover a critical vulnerability in the Polygon MEV ecosystem: systematic nonce reuse that enables complete private key recovery. Analyzing on-chain data reveals that searchers, driven by the need for sub-second response times in sealed-bid auctions, employ predictable nonce patterns. These patterns create linear relationships between signatures, allowing passive attackers to recover private keys using elementary algebra. We provide a compact linear-system formulation for such attacks, including the dangerous case of cross-wallet nonce collisions, and present concrete evidence of exploitable patterns on Polygon. Our findings demonstrate how protocol-induced latency pressures can lead to catastrophic cryptographic failures in production blockchain systems, where a single implementation error compromises multiple accounts simultaneously.
arXiv:2603.17719v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Applications ranging from nuclear safeguards to dark matter detection require accurate predictions of neutron yields and energy spectra produced by ($\alpha$,n) reactions. Legacy tools like SOURCES-4C remain widely used despite significant limitations, including outdated nuclear data, missing target nuclides, and restricted accessibility. Here, we present ALPHANSO, an open-source Python package for calculating ($\alpha$,n) neutron source terms. ALPHANSO incorporates modern nuclear data libraries and formats covering all naturally occurring target nuclides and provides a transparent, modular framework for updating or extending the data as new evaluations are released. Comparison with an updated version of SOURCES-4A, NeuCBOT, and experimental measurements across a range of elements and materials shows that ALPHANSO reproduces neutron yields and spectra in good agreement with experimental data and state-of-the-art ($\alpha$,n) calculations. These results demonstrate that ALPHANSO is a reliable, accessible, and modern alternative to legacy ($\alpha$,n) source term codes such as SOURCES-4C. Its open-source design and modular data handling make it readily extensible to future evaluated nuclear data and low-background applications.
arXiv:2605.22620v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning ability of LLMs, but often depends on external supervision from human annotations or gold-standard solutions. Reinforcement learning from internal feedback (RLIF) has recently emerged as a scalable unsupervised alternative, using signals extracted from the model itself. However, existing RLIF methods typically rely on a single internal reward, which can lead to reward hacking, entropy collapse, and degraded reasoning structure. We propose a multi-reward RLIF framework that decomposes the training signal into two complementary components: an answer-level reward based on cluster voting and a completion-level reward based on token-wise self-certainty. To combine these signals robustly, we apply GDPO-based normalization to reduce reward-scale imbalance. We further introduce KL-Cov regularization, which targets low-entropy token distributions responsible for disproportionate entropy reduction, preserving exploration and preventing late-stage collapse. Across mathematical reasoning and code-generation benchmarks, our method improves stability and robustness over prior unsupervised RL approaches, while achieving performance close to supervised RLVR methods. These results show that complementary internal rewards, combined with targeted regularization, can support stable long-horizon reasoning without relying on external ground-truth supervision. Code will be released soon.
arXiv:2507.20268v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Wireless indoor localization using predictive models with received signal strength information (RSSI) requires proper calibration for reliable position estimates. One remedy is to employ synthetic labels produced by a (generally different) predictive model. But fine-tuning an additional predictor, as well as estimating residual bias of the synthetic labels, demands additional data, aggravating calibration data scarcity in wireless environments. This letter proposes an approach that efficiently uses limited calibration data to simultaneously fine-tune a predictor and estimate the bias of synthetic labels, yielding prediction sets with rigorous coverage guarantees. Experiments on a fingerprinting dataset validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
arXiv:2603.16077v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Masked diffusion models (MDM) exhibit superior generalization when learned using a Partial masking scheme (Prime). This approach converts tokens into sub-tokens and models the diffusion process at the sub-token level. We identify two limitations of the MDM-Prime framework. First, we find that the functional form of the subtokenizer significantly increases the cross-entropy loss in the objective when paired with commonly used Byte-Pair-Encoding (BPE) tokenizers. Second, we lack tools to guide the hyperparameter choice of the token granularity in the subtokenizer. To address these limitations, we analyze the optimal design of the subtokenizer that minimizes MDM-Prime training objective and develop MDM-Prime-v2, a masked diffusion language model which incorporates Binary Encoding and Index Shuffling. Our analysis characterizes how token granularity and sub-token entropy influence the training objective and downstream performance, providing principled criteria for subtokenizer design. When extending the model size to 1.1B parameters, MDM-Prime-v2 demonstrates superior average zero-shot accuracy across eight commonsense reasoning benchmarks, outperforming similar-sized baselines including GPT-Neo, OPT, Pythia, Bloom, SMDM, and TinyLLaMA.
arXiv:2605.21897v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The highly dynamic nature of vehicular networks necessitates proactive and site-specific radio resource management (RRM) to achieve ultra-reliable low-latency communications. While Network Digital Twins (NDTs) have emerged as a promising enabler, ray-tracing remains time-consuming, challenging accurate RRM under latency constraints. We propose AdaPTwin, an adaptive multi-fidelity predictive NDT for proactive and latency-aware RRM in vehicular networks. Unlike single- and multi-fidelity NDTs with fixed fidelity levels, AdaPTwin dynamically adjusts NDT fidelity based on network conditions. The framework adopts a hierarchical cloud-edge architecture, where computationally intensive fidelity selection is performed periodically in the cloud, and the proactive RRM loop operates in real-time at the edge. The edge-based proactive RRM task consists of channel prediction between vehicles and roadside units (RSUs) via trajectory forecasting and look-ahead ray tracing, followed by RRM execution. A transformer model enhanced with continual and transfer learning enables vehicular trajectory prediction while adapting to new environments and traffic patterns. Ray-tracing is performed using NVIDIA Sionna by exploiting a dynamically updated virtual environment to ensure realistic radio propagation within the NDT. Furthermore, a joint RSU beamforming and vehicle-RSU association problem is formulated to maximize proportionally fair sum-rate, and it is efficiently solved using a scalable multi-start iterative coordinate descent algorithm. Comparisons against reactive, single-fidelity, and non-adaptive predictive NDTs under realistic vehicular conditions confirm that AdaPTwin successfully adapts to diverse scenarios where other frameworks fail. Ultimately, AdaPTwin achieves up to 90% sum-rate gain and 80% outage probability reduction compared to non-adaptive NDTs, while maintaining real-time performance.
arXiv:2605.21901v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: In communicationless environments, multi-robot systems must operate without the constant information exchange that many coordination strategies typically assume. This paper presents a novel dynamic epistemic planning framework that enables implicit coordination and long horizon planning through higher-order reasoning among robots. With our approach, robots form and propagate higher-order belief particles, update world beliefs using Bayesian inference, and select actions via a behavior tree that anticipates teammates' likely decisions. A temporally aware Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) controller integrates this reasoning into low-level execution, allowing robots to plan intercepts and adapt trajectories under partial observability. The proposed framework is evaluated in both simulations and physical experiments, where it consistently reduces task completion time compared to a first-order baseline, demonstrating that epistemic logic can serve as a robust foundation for resilient coordination in communication-restricted domains.
arXiv:2605.21654v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Reinforcement learning substantially improves pretrained language models, but it remains understudied why critic-free methods such as PPO and GRPO work as well as they do, and when they should provide the largest gains. We develop a value-gradient perspective of critic-free RL for LLM post-training. First, under a differentiable rollout and additive-noise parameterization, we show that the actor update is value-gradient-like in expectation: the backward pass propagates costates whose conditional expectation equals the value gradient. Second, for discrete transformer policies, we show that autodifferentiation through attention produces empirical costates that approximate this value signal, with an error controlled by the sampling gap and policy entropy. These results motivate a decomposition of RL impact into value gradient signal and reachable reward headroom, yielding a criterion for when RL should be most effective along a pretraining trajectory.
arXiv:2605.22608v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Agentic systems are becoming more capable: agents define strategies, take actions, and interact with different environments. This autonomy poses serious challenges for overseeing and assessing agent behavior. Most current tools are limited, focusing on observability with basic evaluation capabilities or imposing static, hand-crafted error taxonomies that cannot adapt to new domains. To address this gap, we present Agentic CLEAR, an automatic, dynamic, and easy-to-use evaluation framework. It produces textual insights into the agent behavior on three levels of granularity: system, trace, and node. Agentic CLEAR operates above the observability layer, enabling seamless integration and featuring an intuitive UI that makes agent evaluation highly accessible. In our experiments on four benchmarks, seven agentic settings, and tens of thousands of LLM calls, we show that Agentic CLEAR produces high-quality, data-driven, insightful feedback. Our analysis shows strong alignment with human-annotated errors and the ability to predict task success rate.
arXiv:2604.04753v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Production logistics (PL) is increasingly exposed to variability, dynamic interdependencies, and operational disturbances that challenge conventional centralized planning and control. These characteristics are particularly pronounced in circular production systems, but are increasingly relevant across PL more generally. This paper addresses this challenge through the concept of Self-Organizing Production Logistics (SOPL) using the Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) as a structuring framework. The paper identifies key technological and systemic drivers motivating SOPL, including autonomous logistics resources, distributed AI-based decision-making, and increasing operational uncertainty in circular production. Based on these drivers, system-level objectives and design requirements for SOPL are derived. Building on these requirements, an initial multi-agent architecture is proposed that combines embodied and non-embodied agents, event-driven coordination, semantic knowledge structures, and digital twins. In addition, a three-phase demonstration roadmap is presented, ranging from an initial laboratory demonstrator toward increasingly distributed and adaptive SOPL systems. The Phase I demonstrator serves as an experimental setup for investigating disturbance handling, human involvement, and supervisory coordination in an order-driven kitting and supply scenario. Overall, the paper contributes a conceptual foundation for the design, implementation, and experimental evaluation of SOPL systems.
arXiv:2605.21860v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: We introduce a new measure of robustness for statistical estimators, which we call \emph{empirical sensitivity}. An estimator $\hat \theta$ has bounded empirical sensitivity if, with high probability over a dataset $X = (X_1, \dots, X_n) \sim \mathcal{D}^{\otimes n}$, for any dataset $Y$ obtained by modifying at most $\eta n$ points in $X$, we have that $\hat \theta(Y)$ is close to $\hat \theta(X)$.
We study bounds on this quantity for the prototypical problem of Gaussian mean estimation. We prove new lower bounds, showing that for any estimator $\hat \mu$ which achieves an optimal $\ell_2$-error bound of $O\left(\sqrt{d/n}\right)$, the empirical sensitivity is at least $\Omega\left(\eta + \sqrt{\eta d/n}\right)$. The two terms arise due to obstructions on the mean and variance (via an Efron-Stein argument) of such an estimator. We show that this bound is tight up to logarithmic factors, by employing recent results for robust empirical mean estimation.
arXiv:2605.21928v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Estimating treatment effects from observational data requires choosing an adjustment set, but valid adjustment depends on an unknown causal graph. Graph misspecification can cause under-coverage, while graph-agnostic conformal wrappers may regain nominal coverage only through large padding. We introduce CausalGuard, a structure-weighted conformal framework that calibrates after aggregating graph-conditional doubly robust pseudo-outcomes. Candidate DAGs are proposed from an LLM-derived edge prior, pruned by conditional-independence tests, and reweighted by Bayesian Information Criterion. A composite nonconformity score then calibrates the posterior-weighted pseudo-outcome. CausalGuard provides distribution-free finite-sample marginal coverage for this aggregated pseudo-outcome; under causal identification, overlap, conditional-mean nuisance stability, and concentration on target-aligned valid adjustment strategies, its conditional mean converges to the true Conditional Average Treatment Effect. Across five benchmarks, CausalGuard attains mean coverage above the nominal 90% level for the directly evaluable target and reduces width when graph-agnostic conformal baselines require large padding. Stress tests show that CausalGuard suppresses invalid collider adjustment and remains stable under misspecified priors when the retained candidate set is data-supported.
arXiv:2605.22687v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: People are increasingly turning to AI assistance for simple tasks, e.g., arithmetic, spell-check, and answering simple questions. But does AI assistance actually save users time and effort? We investigate people's propensity to use AI for cognitively simple tasks and assess whether their reliance is well-calibrated. Across three pre-registered user studies (N = 2691), we find that people frequently choose to use AI even when doing so is inefficient (i.e. provides no meaningful time or effort savings). We identify systematic miscalibration at two levels: (1) a self-estimate miscalibration where people on average believe that they are using AI less than they actually are, and (2) efficiency-gain illusions where people overestimate how much time and effort savings AI use affords. We also identify a session-level carryover effect where a participant's prior AI use leads to further AI adoption and entrenches their miscalibration about time savings. Our results shed light on the mechanisms and biases underlying people's choice of whether to use AI as well as the risk of an overreliance feedback loop.
arXiv:2605.21935v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Safe manipulation-oriented navigation for humanoid robots requires scene memory that remains reliable under locomotion-induced perceptual distortion, environmental changes, and interaction-level geometric safety constraints. Existing semantic mapping and scene-graph systems are difficult to deploy directly in this setting because they often assume stable camera trajectories, static environments, or coarse object geometry. We introduce the Multi-modal Interactive Field (MIF), a humanoid-oriented system that integrates confidence-aware semantic 3D Gaussian Splatting, discrepancy-triggered spatial memory updates, and task-driven geometric reconstruction within a closed-loop perception-adaptation pipeline. MIF couples three fields: an uncertainty-aware 3DGS Appearance Field that suppresses gait-induced blur, a Spatial Field that maintains topological memory, and a Geometry Field that supports Interaction Pose Safety (IPS) before manipulation. A discrepancy detection score is introduced to separate locomotion-induced false-positive changes from persistent changes and updates only locally inconsistent regions. On a Unitree-G1 humanoid in a real dynamic office, MIF improves relocation success in non-static environments from 12% to 94% compared with static scene-graph memory, while reducing semantic memory footprint by 91.4% through feature distillation for practical online operation. Project page and code: https://ziya-jiang.github.io/MIF-homepage/
arXiv:2603.14721v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: We propose a deep backward regression-based (DBR) scheme for solving high-dimensional nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations. Building on the DBDP method of Hur\'e, Pham, and Warin~\cite{HCPHWX20}, the proposed method reformulates the local backward losses through conditional expectations and trains the resulting regression problems sequentially in time. This conditional-expectation formulation replaces pathwise Brownian fluctuations in the Euler residual by their averaged effect and therefore provides an intrinsic variance-reduction mechanism before loss evaluation. In practice, the conditional expectations are approximated by local multi-path Monte Carlo averages, which leads to smoother training targets and improved numerical stability. Numerical experiments show that DBR performs competitively on standard high-dimensional benchmarks and is more stable than DBDP1 on the challenging unbounded benchmark considered in Example~2. Under an idealized population-loss minimization setting, we provide an error analysis and establish a half-order convergence result under suitable approximation and integrability assumptions. We also discuss an extension to variational inequalities.
arXiv:2605.21902v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Growing attention to intelligent agents has put a spotlight on one of their central capabilities: planning. Early attempts to leverage large language models (LLMs) for planning relied on single-shot plan generation, followed by hybrid approaches that coupled LLMs with limited external search. These methods, unsound and incomplete by their very nature, often require substantial resources without yielding better solutions on unseen problems. As the limitations of LLMs become clearer, recent work has shifted toward using them at solution construction time -- generating symbolic solvers for a family of problems that can be verified and then used efficiently at inference time. This trend reflects the growing need for agents that are both reliable and resource-efficient. It also offers a path towards generating maintainable planners with minimal dependence on language models at inference time. In this paper, we argue that this shift reflects a broader realignment of the planning field in the LLM era. We examine three major categories of planner-generation methods, discuss their current limitations, and outline research steps towards a more reliable and efficient LLM-based generation of planners.
arXiv:2605.21973v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Current Video-LLM approaches for Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) typically rely on direct timestamp generation from an unstructured visual-token stream, often leading to brittle numerics and inconsistent boundaries. To address this, we propose Foresee-to-Ground (F2G), a framework that reformulates VTG as a verifiable Identify-then-Measure problem. F2G integrates Predictive Temporal Perception with Evidence-Driven Reasoning: it learns boundary-sensitive temporal representations to build a video-wide evidence pool of candidate event segments, and exposes these segments to the LLM as citable evidence units that bind boundary prediction to explicit event hypotheses. By decoupling event identification from precise boundary measurement, F2G stabilizes grounding and makes predictions verifiable. Extensive experiments demonstrate that F2G consistently improves grounding accuracy across diverse benchmarks, transfers robustly across different Video-LLM backbones, and preserves general video understanding capabilities.
arXiv:2605.21800v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: World models are central to building agents that can reason, plan, and generalize beyond their training data. However, research on world models is currently fragmented, with disparate codebases, data pipelines, and evaluation protocols hindering reproducibility and fair comparison. Current practice is further limited by three key bottlenecks: fragile one-off codebases, slow video data loading, and the lack of standardized generalization benchmarks. We present stable-worldmodel (swm), an open-source platform for standardized and reproducible world modeling research and evaluation. It delivers (1) a high-performance Lance-based data layer with native support and conversion tools for MP4, HDF5, and LeRobot datasets, (2) clean, well-tested implementations of modern world model baselines and planning solvers, and (3) a broad suite of environments and tasks extended with controllable visual, geometric, and physical factors of variation for systematic in-silico evaluation of dynamics understanding, control performance, representation quality, and out-of-distribution generalization. By unifying the full pipeline under a single, scalable framework, \texttt{swm} dramatically reduces research overhead and accelerates trustworthy progress toward reliable world models.
arXiv:2605.21798v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Neural processes amortize Gaussian process inference, replacing the exact $O(n^3)$ posterior with a learned $O(n)$ map from context sets to predictive distributions. For a class of latent neural processes, we bound the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between the GP and LNP predictives, decomposing it into three interpretable sources, namely label contamination as the neural process uses label values to estimate a quantity that is label-independent in the exact GP, an information bottleneck because the finite-dimensional representation cannot resolve the full context geometry, and amortization error from a single encoder network shared across all contexts. The bottleneck truncation term decays in the representation dimension $d$ as $O(e^{-cd^{2/d_x}})$ for squared-exponential kernels on $\mathbb{R}^{d_x}$ where $c > 0$ is a kernel-dependent constant and as $O(d^{-2\nu/d_x})$ for Mat\'ern-$\nu$ kernels, directly linking architecture sizing to kernel smoothness and input dimension. The label contamination term is $O(1)$ in general, with only the observation-noise component decaying as $O(1/n)$, identifying a persistent cost of routing uncertainty estimation through a label-dependent representation. These results characterize the costs of amortization within the analyzed class and yield architectural recommendations to predict variance from context locations alone in the GP-amortization regime, and replace mean aggregation with second-order pooling to close the dominant amortization gap.
arXiv:2605.21507v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Atmospheric visibility is a critical variable for transportation safety and air quality management, however, accurate prediction remains challenging due to the complex interactions between meteorological conditions and air pollutants, as well as the rarity of low-visibility events. This study introduces a machine learning framework to nowcast visibility in six major South Korean cities. To handle the imbalance in the 2018-2020 training data, we applied the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique with Nominal and Continuous (SMOTENC) and Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN). An ensemble approach combining machine learning and deep learning models was then used and evaluated on a 2021 test dataset. The results revealed a marked decline in predictive performance in the test set compared to the cross-validation phase. This degradation was attributed to a distributional shift between training and testing periods, which was quantitatively confirmed by measuring the Wasserstein distance of the most influential feature identified by SHAP analysis. In general, this study presents a methodology that aims to simultaneously address the dual challenges of data imbalance and temporal distributional shifts, and emphasizes the necessity of accounting for evolving external environmental factors when implementing nowcasting models on time-series data.
arXiv:2605.22075v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Diabetes is a global health burden, and early detection is critical for timely intervention. This study explores a non-invasive, data-driven framework to identify individuals at risk of diabetes using Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and lifestyle variables. We use causal inference techniques to estimate the impact of VOCs such as acetone, isopropanol, isoprene, and ethanol on blood glucose levels. Additionally, we designed a classifier to distinguish diabetics from non-diabetics using non-invasive markers. We created a risk-based ranking system for individuals in the "gray zone," and identified natural clusters in the population using Gaussian Mixture Model. Our results suggest that specific VOCs exhibit a strong causal influence on glucose levels and that machine learning models can reliably classify and stratify individuals at high risk. This integrated causal-explainable analysis can support the development of tool for non-invasive early screening of diabetes.