arXiv:2606.07455v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Diabetes affects millions of people and requires reliable continuous glucose monitoring for early hypoglycemia warning. However, medical AI systems must be not only accurate and energy efficient, but also explainable, noise robust, and uncertainty aware. This work presents a 65 nm hypoglycemia forecasting engine based on probabilistic decision trees for trustworthy medical inference. The proposed hybrid architecture combines exact arithmetic evaluation for shallow tree layers with sampling based inference for deeper layers, reducing soft decision tree complexity from exponential to sample efficient traversal. A reconfigurable 4 by 24 by 24 probabilistic node array supports arbitrary tree structures with a maximum depth of 12, coordinated by an on chip low power RISC V core. Fabricated in 65 nm CMOS, the chip achieves 11.3 nJ per inference and a state of the art 30 min forecasting F1 score of 0.825 on continuous glucose monitoring data. Compared with conventional decision tree and random forest models, the proposed engine improves robustness to sensor noise and data point drop off by 4.1x to 16.1x. These results demonstrate an energy efficient, explainable, and uncertainty aware edge AI engine for trustworthy hypoglycemia forecasting.
Science Journals
arXiv:2510.04127v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Approximate nearest-neighbour search underpins large-scale retrieval and retrieval-augmented generation, yet its methods are studied in communities that seldom read one another. We argue that they form one field with three design choices. We develop the projection-quantisation-organisation lens: every method places its projections, places its quantisation thresholds, and organises the resulting codes for search. We test the lens with a reproducible measurement, released as the open BitBudget benchmark, and report three findings. First, the quantisation axis delivers the largest memory savings: a one-bit code with full-precision re-ranking matches uncompressed quality for six of seven embedders, the scanned code one thirty-second of the float's size. Second, the orderings the lens anticipates, including a learned-embedding regime where binary codes overtake an inverted-file product quantiser at a matched byte budget, recur as the embedding is enlarged. Third, given class labels, an eight-byte supervised code more than doubles the retrieval quality of the two-kilobyte task-agnostic float it replaces. We also recast the semantic identifiers of generative retrieval as quantisation codes. The main contribution is a single, tested account of compact-code search, from random projections to the retrieval-augmented era.
arXiv:2511.21957v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We consider the robust planning of energy-constrained unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), which act as mobile charging stations, to perform long-horizon aerial monitoring missions. More specifically, given a set of points to be visited by the UAVs and desired final positions of the UAV-UGV teams, the objective is to find a robust plan (the vehicle trajectories) that can be realized without a major revision in the face of uncertainty (e.g., unknown obstacles/terrain, wind) to complete this mission in minimum time. We provide a formal description of this problem as a mixed-integer program (MIP), which is NP-hard. Since exact solution methods are computationally intractable for such problems, we propose RSPECT, a scalable and efficient heuristic. We provide theoretical results on the complexity of our algorithm and the feasibility and robustness of resulting plans. We also demonstrate the performance of our method via simulations and experiments.
arXiv:2407.05370v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms often struggle to perform well when trained on imbalanced data. In such scenarios, the generated pseudo-labels tend to exhibit a bias toward the majority class, and models relying on these pseudo-labels can further amplify this bias. Existing imbalanced SSL algorithms explore pseudo-labeling strategies based on either pseudo-label refinement (PLR) or threshold adjustment (THA), aiming to mitigate the bias through heuristic-driven designs. However, through a careful statistical analysis, we find that existing strategies are suboptimal: most PLR algorithms are either overly empirical or rely on the unrealistic assumption that models remain well-calibrated throughout training, while most THA algorithms depend on flawed metrics for pseudo-label selection. To address these shortcomings, we first derive the theoretically optimal form of pseudo-labels under class imbalance. This foundation leads to our key contribution: SEmi-supervised learning with pseudo-label optimization based on VALidation data (SEVAL), a unified framework that learns both PLR and THA parameters from a class-balanced subset of training data. By jointly optimizing these components, SEVAL adapts to specific task requirements while ensuring per-class pseudo-label reliability. Our experiments demonstrate that SEVAL outperforms state-of-the-art SSL methods, producing more accurate and effective pseudo-labels across various imbalanced SSL scenarios while remaining compatible with diverse SSL algorithms. The code is publicly available (https://github.com/ZerojumpLine/SEVAL).
arXiv:2411.19567v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recently, a number of simulation testing approaches have been proposed to generate diverse driving scenarios for autonomous driving systems (ADSs) testing. However, the behaviors of NPC vehicles in these scenarios generated by previous approaches are predefined and mutated before simulation execution, ignoring traffic signals and the behaviors of the Ego vehicle. Thus, a large number of the violations they found are induced by unrealistic behaviors of NPC vehicles, revealing no bugs of ADSs. Besides, the vast scenario search space of NPC behaviors during the iterative mutations limits the efficiency of previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a novel scenario-based testing framework, DynNPC, to generate more violation scenarios induced by the ADS. Specifically, DynNPC allows NPC vehicles to dynamically generate behaviors using different driving strategies during simulation execution based on traffic signals and the real-time behavior of the Ego vehicle. We compare DynNPC with state-of-the-art scenario-based testing approaches. Our evaluation has demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of DynNPC in finding more violation scenarios induced by the ADS.
arXiv:2412.00107v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-time monitoring of safety-critical interior states remains an open problem in energy systems where physical instrumentation is infeasible. Existing approaches rely on explicit governing equations, finite-dimensional state vectors, or per-instance retraining, which prevents mesh-independent, field-level inference at arbitrary interior coordinates under real-time constraints. We introduce operator-based virtual sensing for nuclear-grade thermal-fluid systems: we use the neural-operator framework to learn solution operators that map sparse boundary measurements to coupled internal fields in physically inaccessible regions, framing the problem class explicitly to distinguish it from classical state estimation and pointwise soft sensing. We instantiate this framework with MIMONet, a branch-trunk operator extended with three practical choices: multi-modal branch encoders for heterogeneous (scalar and function-valued) inputs; multiplicative branch fusion to preserve the bilinear PDE coupling structure; and shared-latent multi-field decoding with per-channel basis projections at the trunk's final layer. Evaluated across escalating complexity, from canonical lid-driven cavity flow to pressurized water reactor subchannels to fully coupled heat exchangers, MIMONet achieves below 5% relative errors and sub-millisecond inference on data-center accelerators (0.35 ms / 46 mJ per heat-exchanger inference on an NVIDIA H200, and sub-millisecond across the A40-H200-GH200 range), while remaining stable under 50% sensor noise. By staying accurate as geometric confinement and physics coupling intensify, MIMONet shows that operator-based virtual sensing can restore observability where physical instrumentation fails, establishing simulation-based feasibility within the evaluated operating envelopes as a step toward future experimental and cross-solver validation for safety-critical energy systems.
arXiv:2606.12291v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) now reach expert-level scores on medical licensing exams, encouraging the assumption that high scores imply safe medical judgment while patients increasingly use them for health advice. We show this assumption is fragile: when misleading context is injected into questions that LLMs originally answer correctly, they abandon the correct answer. We call the ability to maintain correct judgment under adversarial context epistemic resilience, and introduce MedMisBench to measure it. MedMisBench contains 10,932 medical question items and 48,889 misleading context-option pairs spanning medical reasoning, agentic capability, and patient-journey evaluation. Across 11 model configurations, mean accuracy falls from 71.1% on original questions to 38.0% under focused misleading context, with 51.5% attack success. The most damaging injections are formal, rule-like fabrications: authority-framed falsehoods reach 69.5% attack success and exception-poisoning claims reach 64.1%. A 14-member clinical panel from 7 countries identified serious potential harm in 38.2% of reviewed cases. MedMisBench exposes a structural blind spot in LLM evaluation in medical settings: existing benchmarks measure what models know, but not whether they preserve correct medical judgment under misleading context.
arXiv:2603.05627v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce a notion of the ``explanation" of one (generalized) probabilistic model by another as particular kind of span in the category $\Prob$ of probabilistic models and morphisms. We show that explanations compose under a standard pullback construction (notwithstanding that $\Prob$ does not support arbitrary pullbacks). We then show that every locally-finite probabilistic model has a canonical, sharp classical explanation. The construction is functorial, so every locally-finite probabilistic theory has a canonical, sharp classical (though of course, usually non-local) representation.
arXiv:2606.12978v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Vision-language-action (VLA) policies bring natural language into closed-loop robot control, enabling robots to execute manipulation tasks directly from text instructions. The same interface gives text a recurring role in control because the prompt is reused at every replanning step, and each prompt-conditioned action changes the future observations on which the policy acts. Existing VLA attacks study adversarial prompts that elicit targeted low-level actions or make such actions persist across changing images. We identify a stronger trajectory-level failure mode: a prompt that still $\textit{appears}$ to specify the intended task but redirects the final physical outcome. We mathematically formalize this setting as $\textit{command-preserving trajectory redirection}$, a prompt-only threat model in which the attacker chooses one prompt before the episode, all policy and environment components remain fixed, and the prompt must stay close to the benign instruction while omitting target words and correction language. To find such prompts, we introduce an on-policy prompt search method that uses rollouts to discover perturbations whose closed-loop behavior tracks a target task while satisfying the command-preserving constraints. Experiments in simulation and on hardware show that near-benign prompt perturbations can redirect VLA rollouts to attacker-specified targets. These results expose a trajectory-level vulnerability in VLA instruction grounding: text that appears to preserve the intended command can still give an adversary control over the robot's final physical outcome. Project website: https://vla-redirection-attack.github.io/
arXiv:2502.07209v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) seek to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) with deep learning. Mainstream approaches that deploy fully-connected multi-layer deep learning architectures require prolonged training to achieve even moderate accuracy, while recent work on feature engineering allows higher accuracy and faster convergence. This paper introduces SAFE-NET, a Single-layered Adaptive Feature Engineering NETwork that achieves orders-of-magnitude lower errors with far fewer parameters than baseline feature engineering methods. SAFE-NET returns to basic ideas in machine learning, using Fourier features, a simplified single hidden layer network architecture, and an effective optimizer that improves the conditioning of the PINN optimization problem. Numerical results show that SAFE-NET converges faster and typically outperforms deeper networks and more complex architectures. It consistently uses fewer parameters -- on average, 65% fewer than the competing feature engineering methods -- while achieving comparable accuracy in less than 30% of the training epochs. Moreover, each SAFE-NET epoch is 95% faster than those of competing feature engineering approaches. These findings challenge the prevailing belief that modern PINNs effectively learn features in these scientific applications and highlight the efficiency gains possible through feature engineering.
arXiv:2606.16648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Space-based solar radiation management has been proposed as a direct means of modulating Earth's radiative balance by reducing incident solar flux. A prominent concept consists of large sunshades operating near the Sun-Earth L1 region. However, feasibility is constrained by a fundamental lower bound on the required mass, arising from the coupled requirements of achieving sufficient insolation reduction while maintaining dynamical equilibrium under solar radiation pressure (SRP). We introduce a class of sunshades, termed deflective, designed to shape the effective SRP through macroscopic surface geometry. By employing inclined reflective elements, these systems redirect incident radiation to simultaneously control flux attenuation and the resulting momentum exchange, enabling the use of conventional high-reflectivity materials (e.g., aluminium films). The concept admits multiple geometrical realizations, including conical, pyramidal, and louvered (venetian-blind) configurations. A conical configuration is then studied in more detail as a representative implementation of this broader design principle. To improve its packaging efficiency and scalability, we consider a distributed constellation of units and propose a flat-folding strategy based on a Miura-Ori pattern adapted to the conical geometry finding its optimal configuration parameters resulting in a favourable geometry.
arXiv:2606.16652v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporary accommodation has become a major fiscal and administrative pressure for English local authorities, particularly in London, where demand and costs have risen sharply. This paper documents the creation and use of DOMUS, a cloud-based, AI-enabled decision-support system built from scratch at the University of East London and customised for the needs of London Borough of Newham to support statutory Temporary accommodation placement. DOMUS integrates household case records, policy-constrained affordability and suitability rules, and live private-rental listings within a single governance-aligned workflow. The system combines transparent, rule-based filtering with large language model-assisted search to standardise the application of bedroom need, affordability thresholds, geographic preferences, and accessibility requirements, while preserving officer discretion and audibility. Household and property attributes are encoded into policy-consistent representations prior to AI-assisted ranking and explanation. A pilot deployment in Newham's secure environment evaluated operational performance relative to manual workflows. Results indicate substantial reductions in search time, improved adherence to key placement constraints, and high staff satisfaction, while maintaining statutory compliance and role-based accountability. Beyond TA, the paper frames DOMUS as replicable digital public infrastructure: a modular, cloud-native Software-as-a-Service architecture that can be deployed across other UK boroughs and adapted to other public administration tasks characterised by scarcity, rule-bound eligibility, and high stakes. The findings demonstrate the feasibility of scalable, ethically governed AI deployment in local government and contribute to debates on AI-enabled public value creation in e-governance.
arXiv:2606.16700v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While reasoning on autoregressive (AR) models is often performed by chain-of-thought reasoning and reflection, their refinement of previous outputs still relies on fully sequential generation, even when only local edits are needed. In contrast, the masking mechanism in Mask Diffusion Models (MDMs) naturally supports explicit local edits on previous outputs, allowing selective refinement without discarding previous answers and generating another from scratch. While this property more closely aligns with how humans correct mistakes by iterative local refinement, existing MDMs do not support multi-turn masking and denoising. We propose Reflective Masking (RM), which elicits such an intrinsic reasoning capability in MDMs via lightweight post-training. RM provides a native test-time scaling, where an MDM iteratively revisits and revises its prior outputs based on evolving context. To exploit insights from previous turns like AR reasoning, we further introduce History Reference, a parameter-free mechanism that leverages intermediate denoising states during revision. Our approach requires no architectural changes and is easily applicable to existing MDMs. Across diverse tasks and modalities, including text generation, Sudoku, and image editing, Reflective Masking consistently outperforms standard masking-based baselines and demonstrates strong generality, positioning RM as a fundamental primitive for reasoning on MDMs.
arXiv:2606.16710v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent systems, in which multiple large language model agents solve problems through turn-based interaction, are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings such as medical diagnosis, legal analysis, and forensic decision-making. Their reliability can be at risk when single agents reason from incorrect or misleading context, e.g., from tool calls, since errors may propagate through agent interactions. This work studies this risk by injecting intent-based misinformation into benign single-agent and multi-agent systems across reasoning, knowledge, and alignment tasks. We find that misinformation can degrade single-agent performance and persists across multi-agent debate, with agents often retaining answers introduced by misinformed peers. Nevertheless, multi-agent debate reduces the resulting performance degradation compared to single-agent prompting, especially when most agents are not exposed to misinformation. Robustness depends on group composition and decision protocol. Consensus can be more stable than voting under peer pressure, while majorities can often steer misinformed agents back toward correct answers. Our results show that misinformation robustness in multi-agent systems depends on the underlying model and also on how agents exchange information and aggregate decisions.
arXiv:2605.22873v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning has become the default strategy for enhancing LLM capabilities, yet its application raises a fundamental question: when is explicit reasoning actually beneficial? Empirical evidence reveals a striking paradox: CoT often provides marginal or even negative gains on factual and open-ended tasks while multiplying token consumption. In this work, we show that LLM reasoning is not a static property of tasks or models, but a \emph{dynamic decoding state} that emerges during generation. Through systematic analysis, we find early-stage entropy dynamics provide a reliable signal of this state: tasks benefiting from CoT exhibit consistent entropy reduction, while others display unstable or increasing patterns. This behavior can be interpreted as a phase-transition-like shift from a high-entropy exploratory regime to a low-entropy structured reasoning regime. Based on these insights, we propose \textbf{EDRM} (Entropy Dynamics-based Reasoning Manifold), a lightweight and training-free routing framework that leverages early decoding entropy to adaptively select inference strategies. EDRM embeds entropy trajectories into a compact and interpretable manifold representation, enabling both zero-shot deployment and fine-grained instance-level adaptation. Across 15 benchmarks and 4 LLMs of varying scales and architectures, EDRM consistently outperforms static baselines. At the dataset level, EDRM achieves \textbf{41--55\%} token reduction while improving accuracy with as few as 50 calibration samples. At the instance level, it further improves accuracy by up to \textbf{4.7\%} while maintaining \textbf{27--45\%} token savings. These results suggest that reasoning should be invoked selectively rather than by default, and demonstrate the effectiveness of entropy-driven decoding control for efficient and adaptive LLM inference.
arXiv:2606.10237v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Genetic programming (GP) is based on two important insights. First, that any learning task can fundamentally be posed as a program induction problem, where the goal is to construct a symbolic hierarchical model that is expressed as a syntax tree. Second, to pose this task as a search problem, and use evolution to locate the desired model. Since it was proposed, GP has produced notable results in a wide range of tasks and problem domains. This work presents an alternative view by modifying the second core insight of GP, posing the problem as a syntactic derivation task instead. In particular, this paper presents Minimalist Genetic Programming (MGP), an algorithm that like GP is biologically inspired, but instead of evolution it takes inspiration from the Minimalist Program to human language, in which syntax is understood as an optimal solution to the problem of linking two other mental systems. In minimalism, the core computational process is a binary set formation operator called $MERGE$, than can be used to incrementally construct complex syntactic structures using a simple Markovian process. MGP is able to discover the core building blocks of the symbolic expressions, and to incrementally combined them using $MERGE$. The proposed system is benchmarked on symbolic regression tasks that are known to be difficult to solve with standard GP systems because of the propensity for bloat. Results show that when a proper lexicon of atomic syntactic objects are chosen, MGP is able to consistently produce the exact ground truth model on a set of symbolic regression tasks where standard GP struggles to do the same. The insights provided by minimalism are shown to be relevant to the problem of program induction, and should be explored further based on the potential exhibited by MGP in this work.
arXiv:2603.08191v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deterministic chaos is usually associated with local spectral expansion: Jacobian eigenvalues are expected to exceed unity somewhere on the attractor. We show that this view is incomplete in dimensions d>1. For non-normal Jacobians, pointwise spectral stability can suggest everywhere local contraction, while non-orthogonal eigenvectors still allow transient singular-vector amplification. We construct four low-dimensional deterministic maps realizing this mechanism: partition-reinjected, phase-prescribed, feedback-driven, and affine-reinjected non-normal routes to chaos. In all cases, the instantaneous Jacobian remains spectrally stable on the attractor, with eigenvalues fixed inside the unit disk, while increasing non-normality drives the maximal Lyapunov exponent through zero. The positive exponent therefore describes sustained asymptotic chaos, not transient chaos. Across the four classes, the common signature is spectral radius $\rho_{\mathrm{traj}}^{\max}<1$, singular value $\sigma_{\mathrm{traj}}^{\max}>1$ maximum Lyapunov exponent $\lambda_1>0$, and an increase of attractor dimension. These examples identify non-normality and recurrent reinjection of transiently amplified directions as a deterministic route to chaos distinct from eigenvalue instability.
arXiv:2604.26819v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We prove that any random variable $X$ whose moment generating function is point-wise upper bounded by that of $ G \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1) $ must be dominated by $ G/\mathbb{E}[|G|] $ in convex order, meaning $ \mathbb{E}[f(X)] \le \mathbb{E}[f(G/\mathbb{E}[|G|])] $ for all convex $f$. This is sharp as witnessed by $ X \sim \mathrm{Unif}(\{-1,1\}) $ and $ f(x) = |x| $.
arXiv:2512.15313v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep learning has become a standard approach for the modeling of audio effects, yet strictly black-box modeling remains problematic for time-varying systems. Unlike time-invariant effects, training models on devices with internal modulation typically requires the recording or extraction of control signals to ensure the time-alignment required by standard loss functions. This paper introduces a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) framework to model such effects using only input-output audio recordings, without requiring a modulation signal extraction. We propose a convolutional-recurrent architecture trained via a two-stage strategy: an initial adversarial phase allows the model to learn the distribution of the modulation behavior without strict phase constraints, followed by a supervised fine-tuning phase where a State Prediction Network (SPN) estimates the initial internal states required to synchronize the model with the target. Additionally, a new metric based on chirp-train signals is developed to quantify modulation accuracy. Experiments modeling a vintage hardware phaser demonstrate the method's ability to capture time-varying dynamics in a fully black-box context.
arXiv:2512.16184v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Early and accessible detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains a critical clinical challenge, and cube-copying tasks offer a simple yet informative assessment of visuospatial function. This work proposes a multimodal framework that converts hand-drawn cube sketches into graph-structured representations capturing geometric and topological properties, and integrates these features with demographic information and neuropsychological test (NPT) scores for AD classification. Cube drawings are modeled as graphs with node features encoding spatial coordinates, local graphlet-based topology, and angular geometry, which are processed using graph neural networks and fused with age, education, and NPT features in a late-fusion model. Experimental results show that graph-based representations provide a strong unimodal baseline and substantially outperform pixel-based convolutional models, while multimodal integration further improves balanced classification performance and discriminative ability. SHAP-based interpretability analysis identifies specific graphlet motifs associated with corner integrity and edge continuity as key predictors, closely aligning with clinical observations of distorted cube drawings in AD. Together, these findings establish graph-based analysis of cube-copying behavior as an interpretable, non-invasive, and scalable framework for Alzheimer's disease screening.
arXiv:2606.16735v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mixed autonomy driving becomes unsafe and inefficient when autonomous vehicles (AVs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs) misread each other's intentions. We study this problem as implicit mutual communication in lane changes. The proposed framework models how the ego vehicle both expresses its intent and probes the other driver's preference under epistemic uncertainty. It combines a level-k Bayesian persuasion game with virtual features for proactive signaling, information-theoretic rewards for mutual communication, and adaptive weights of communication affordances. We further introduce the Pride-Inquiry (P-I) and Pride-Prejudice (P-P) planes to analyze communication intensity and tendency. The model is calibrated with a Communication-Based Multi-Agent Inverse Reinforcement Learning algorithm (C-MIRL) on the naturalistic NGSIM dataset. Compared with the non-communicative baseline, the proposed model reduces the prediction error of mandatory lane changes by up to 20% while maintaining strong generalization. Driver-In-the-Loop questionnaire scores are positively correlated with the calibrated communication variables, supporting the subjective validity of the model. The learned rewards further show that inquiry and listening affordances contribute more than pride and expression alone, and that inquiry preference varies more strongly across drivers. These results support explicit modeling of mutual communication and epistemic uncertainty in interactive driving.
arXiv:2606.16736v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Timed automata provide a modeling formalism for time-critical properties of reactive systems with discrete-state/continuous-time behaviors. To handle the infinite state space of timed automata, recent verification tools use zone graphs, a symbolic semantic model that guarantees sound results, at least for properties reducible to reachability problems. If we instead want to compare the behavior of two timed automata, checking for timed trace equivalence is undecidable. Fortunately, timed bisimulation equivalence is decidable, but currently available checks do not provide useful explanations of the results. To overcome this limitation, we use a recently proposed extension of zone graphs by so-called virtual clocks. The extension not only facilitates effective tool support for timed bisimilarity checking but also enables the derivation of useful explanations from the results. If timed bisimilarity holds, all witnesses derivable from the composed symbolic representation of both models are indeed valid for both models. If timed bisimilarity does not hold, we describe how to obtain counterexamples, making explicit the behavioral differences. These witnesses/counterexamples may serve as test cases in later stages of system refinement.
arXiv:2601.20875v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Governments with limited fiscal and administrative capacity need to know which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propagate progress through the goal system and how quickly. We map the directed interdependence structure of all seventeen goals using a balanced panel of 114 countries observed annually from 2000 to 2024. The goal series are persistent, trending, and cross-sectionally dependent, so we apply two estimators matched to this regime: a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test, run on first-differenced series, to recover the directed interaction network, and panel local projections with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to measure the dynamic magnitude of 31 theory-derived indicator linkages. Of 272 directed goal pairs, 84 linkages survive false-discovery control (40 synergies, 44 trade-offs; network density 0.31). Synergies and trade-offs occur at comparable strength, so no single goal behaves as a universal accelerator, and the goal-level hierarchy itself is fragile. Driver-receiver rankings correlate weakly across lag orders and centrality metrics, and under a country bootstrap only two roles are distinguishable from zero: peace and strong institutions as the clearest net receiver, and poverty reduction as the most probable effect-size-weighted driver. The supported linkages are dynamic, accruing over four to five years: sanitation and poverty improvements are the strongest predictors of lower child mortality, and the education-child-health association is corroborated in independent World Development Indicators data across 183 countries. These results caution against rankings-based accelerator policy and support adaptive portfolios built on supported, time-lagged linkages monitored through constituent indicators.
arXiv:2507.17588v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Multimodal Machine Translation (MMT) typically enhances text-only translation by incorporating aligned visual features. Despite the remarkable progress, state-of-the-art MMT approaches often rely on paired image-text inputs at inference and are sensitive to irrelevant visual noise, which limits their robustness and practical applicability. To address these issues, we propose D2P-MMT, a diffusion-based dual-branch prompting framework for robust vision-guided translation. Specifically, D2P-MMT requires only the source text and a reconstructed image generated by a pre-trained diffusion model, which naturally filters out distracting visual details while preserving semantic cues. During training, the model jointly learns from both authentic and reconstructed images using a dual-branch prompting strategy, encouraging rich cross-modal interactions. To bridge the modality gap and mitigate training-inference discrepancies, we introduce a distributional alignment loss that enforces consistency between the output distributions of the two branches. Extensive experiments on the Multi30K dataset demonstrate that D2P-MMT achieves superior translation performance compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MentaY/DDP.
arXiv:2507.23286v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As the demand for low-latency services grows, ensuring the delay performance of random access (RA) networks has become a priority. Existing studies on the queueing delay of the Aloha model universally treat packets as atomic transmission units, focusing on delay measured in time slots. However, the impact of packetization on queueing delay has been overlooked, particularly for the mean queueing delay measured in seconds. Here, packetization refers to the process of determining the number of bits assembled into a packet. This paper establishes the mathematical relationship between packetization and mean queueing delay in seconds for connection-free and connection-based Aloha schemes, and explores the optimal packetization to minimize the queueing delay. We identify the optimal packetization and its corresponding minimum mean queueing delay via numerical methods, and analyze the influence of various network parameters. We further use simulations to investigate the impact of packetization on jitter of queueing delay. We then apply our analysis to re-evaluate the trade-off between the connection-free and connection-based schemes through the perspective of packetization. Furthermore, we apply the analysis to Random Access-Based Small Data Transmission (RA-SDT) in Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) scenarios as a case study.