Cyclones Push Families to Marry Off Girls Early, Study Shows
Natural disasters increase child marriage rates by over 60% among the youngest girls, a new analysis of Bangladesh's 2007 cyclone reveals. The finding has urgent implications for development agencies and insurers operating in disaster-prone regions, suggesting that economic aid alone won't prevent child welfare crises without targeted social protection programs.
Originaltitel: Natural Disasters and Child Marriage: Evidence from the 2007 Cyclone in Bangladesh
<p>Bangladesh still has one of the highest rates of child marriage globally, despite nearly a century of legal restrictions. While previous research has identified various drivers of child marriage, the causal impact of natural disasters remains poorly understood. This study provides a causal analysis of how environmental shocks affect child marriage by examining Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh in 2007. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that cyclone exposure substantially increased child marriage rates among 14-18-year-olds. The effects were largest for the youngest girls, with the probability of marrying before age 14 increasing by more than 60% among those who married during the study period. Event-study results indicate that child marriage rates tended to rise about six months after a disaster struck. This is typically when families begin to experience prolonged economic hardship. The increase in child marriages was most evident in severely affected and poverty-prone districts. This study underscores the importance of robust social protection measures for helping households absorb environmental shocks and mitigate adverse effects on child welfare.</p>