Early energy choices risk locking in inferior systems, study warns
Researchers have identified a critical risk in the global rush to decentralize energy grids: choosing the wrong model now could trap countries in suboptimal systems for decades. The study maps four competing visions for renewable energy futures and warns that premature commitments to specific technologies or governance structures could foreclose better options before their full consequences are understood.
Originaltitel: Emergent lock-ins in sustainability transitions: the example of energy system decentralisation
<p>Energy systems are currently undergoing fundamental transformations, with several possible energy futures emerging, including various decentralised ones. However, transformations are characterised by uncertainty, and it is difficult to assess the sustainability of these different energy futures. There is a danger that premature choices could lead to lock-ins to sub-optimal pathways as seen from a broad sustainability perspective. This paper explores the role of potential lock-ins on the pathways towards emerging configurations of decentralised, carbon-neutral energy systems. Our analysis draws on four emerging ideal-type decentralisation configurations of ‘energy futures’ (individual system optimisation, individual autonomy, collective system optimisation, and collective autonomy) and the institutional, actor and technological preconditions required for them to become dominant forms of energy system organisation.</p>