NOAA's New Weather Satellites Could Sharpen Forecasts by Hours
NOAA plans to launch advanced microwave satellites that will significantly reduce forecast uncertainty, according to modeling by European weather scientists. The finding suggests that adding early-morning orbital coverage and new sensor technology could improve prediction accuracy for storms and severe weather—potentially giving emergency managers and businesses more lead time for preparedness.
Originaltitel: Ensemble of Data Assimilation (EDA) Impact Studies in Support of NOAA’s Next-Generation Microwave-Sounding Missions
Abstract This study assesses the expected forecast impact of future microwave-sounding instruments planned under National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Near Earth Orbit Network (NEON) program. Using the ensemble of data assimilation method within the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System, we evaluate two concepts for future operational weather satellites. First, we assess a potential Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)-like instrument in the early morning [1730 local time of ascending node (LTAN)] orbit to quantify the benefit of complementing the midmorning and afternoon orbits. Second, we evaluate the more advanced Sounder for Microwave-Based Applications (SMBA), which includes new channels near 118 and 229 GHz, in both afternoon (1330 LTAN) and early morning orbital configurations. Results confirm that adding an ATMS-like instrument in the early morning orbit provides a significant reduction in short-range forecast uncertainty, with an impact comparable to legacy Polar(-orbiting) Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) satellites. The assessment of SMBA demonstrates that its new channels provide modest but clear additional forecast improvements for geopotential height and wind fields compared to a configuration with sounding from 50- and 183-GHz bands only. However, these new channels are found to be complementary rather than able to replace the foundational 50-GHz band for temperature sounding. The greatest forecast impact is achieved when SMBA instruments are deployed in a two-orbit constellation. A key finding across all experiments is the critical sensitivity of forecast impact to instrument noise. A low-noise instrument is shown to be important for maximizing the impact for numerical weather prediction. The study also shows that impact estimates obtained with real ATMS data are broadly consistent with those obtained with simulated data, adding further confidence to the simulation results. Significance Statement The work provides a quantitative basis for design and deployment strategies for future microwave-sounding missions. It evaluates the impact expected on weather forecasts for two different satellite instruments from NOAA’s contribution to the 3-orbit backbone observing system using ensemble methods. The study shows the benefit of covering multiple orbits and sensing different spectral regions, provided the deployed instrument is sufficiently accurate. The 50-GHz temperature-sounding band is crucial for achieving good forecast impact, and 118-GHz channels alone do not provide a similar benefit. A comparison of results with simulated and real data shows good qualitative agreement, further confirming the reliability of the simulation results.