Solar panel efficiency gains could be undermined by manufacturing costs
A new analysis reveals that while perovskite-silicon hybrid solar cells promise significant efficiency improvements, cost reductions depend heavily on scaling and innovation—not just efficiency gains alone. For manufacturers and energy companies betting on next-generation solar, the real challenge isn't the technology; it's keeping production costs competitive.
Originaltitel: Techno-economic challenges and opportunities behind the perovskite–silicon alliance
Abstract Perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells enable a leap in efficiency beyond single-junction limits. A thorough evaluation of their commercial prospects requires integrating technological progress, cost considerations, and the added value enabled by the efficiency breakthrough. In this work, a comprehensive evaluation of perovskite/silicon tandem technologies is conducted with reference to industrial conditions in China, incorporating future efficiency improvements and quantifying their added value beyond manufacturing cost. The cost composition of 2-terminal (2T) and 4-terminal (4T) tandem architectures is dissected, and the trade-off between efficiency gain and increased manufacturing cost is analyzed. The results highlight that significant cost reductions will rely not only on the expansion of manufacturing scale, but also on continued technological innovation to reduce material and processing costs. Then, an in-depth assessment of their market competitiveness in terms of both manufacturing cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is undertaken. The results indicate that the 2T modules show a clear advantage in manufacturing cost, which is expected to fall below that of silicon modules, and they can achieve a lower LCOE with a minimum lifetime requirement of just 15 years, which allows them to enter the market earlier than single-junction perovskite solar cells. Finally, a techno-economic roadmap is provided to summarize the critical technological pathways toward the commercialization of perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells.