Swedish courts' decisions on retrials predicted with 100% accuracy using just two factors
Researchers found that whether a defendant wins a retrial petition in Swedish courts can be predicted almost perfectly by knowing only if they have a lawyer and their crime type—without examining case evidence. The finding suggests judicial decisions may rely heavily on procedural factors rather than case merit, raising concerns about consistency in criminal justice.
Originaltitel: Can criminal justice be predicted?: Using regression analysis to predict judges' decisions on petitions for new criminal trials
<p>Predictability of legal decisions is usually considered a prerequisite for the rule of law, following the maxim ‘like cases should be treated alike’. Yet, this presupposes that the case outcome can be predicted based on the <em>merits</em> of the case, rather than other factors. The purpose of this study was to test whether and to what extent legal decisions on petitions for new criminal trials can be predicted on the basis of other fairly superficial criteria that one could access without even reading the case file, e.g. which Court decided, whether the applicant had legal representation etc. To this end, all petitions for new criminal trials submitted to the Swedish Supreme Court and the six Courts of Appeal in the time period 2010–2020 (n = 3915) were reviewed. This data formed the basis of a regression model which was then used to predict decisions regarding petitions in 2021. On the basis of access to legal representation and crime type, the regression model predicted accurately 100 % of the decisions made in 2021. This raises questions about the evidentiary basis for the decisions and also the role of judges in situations where their decisions are fully predictable.</p>