How War Forced Ukraine to Choose the West Over Neutrality
A new analysis reveals that Russia's 2014 invasion didn't just change Ukraine's military strategy—it fundamentally rewired the country's political power structure, eliminating domestic opposition to a pro-Western turn. The shift has major implications for how geopolitical realignment happens: painful crises can override decades of internal division when they eliminate the political constituencies that benefited from the old order.
Originaltitel: Painful Moments and Realignment: Explaining Ukraine's Foreign Policy, 2014–2022
<p>For decades, Ukraine’s foreign policy was indecisive, with elites balancing domestic interests, Russia, and the West. This article claims a critical juncture occurred in 2013–2014 resulting in Ukraine’s decisive turn to the West for two main reasons. First, the fragmentation of the Donetsk elite and territorial losses that excluded parts of its voter base weakened “pro-Russian” political forces inside Ukraine. Second, Ukraine’s predominant foreign policy narrative increasingly portrayed the EU and NATO as a civilizational choice and Russia as a radical other. The article shows how the critical juncture made Ukraine’s shift possible and how Ukraine’s pro-Western orientation stabilized from 2014 onward.</p>