How people really use their time reshapes commute and work predictions
A new Swedish study shows that people value different amounts of time for work, leisure, and socializing in ways previous models missed. The finding lets policymakers and urban planners predict how changes like four-day work weeks will actually ripple through commuting patterns, childcare schedules, and how people organize their days.
Originaltitel: Activity duration dependent utility in a dynamic scheduling model
<p>We present the use of duration-dependent activity utility within the dynamic scheduling model Scaper, which simulates individuals' full-day activity and travel schedules. In Scaper, agents make sequential choices in time which maximize expected future utility and respect time-space constraints. Using Swedish travel survey data, we estimate a new version of the model including piecewise linear utility functions for marginal activity duration by activity purpose. Our model reveals a strong duration dependence for work, leisure, and visit activities with differing functional shapes for each purpose. In simulation, the duration-dependent model better reproduces observed distributions of activity duration and performs as well across other metrics as the model without duration dependence. We illustrate the potential policy applications of the model using a scenario of shortened work days. The duration-dependent model offers useful predictions for the effects of the scenario on commute timing, nonwork activities, time spent at home, and trip chaining.</p>