Ethnic Conflict Reshapes Family Planning Desires in Ethiopia
A new study reveals that people from politically marginalized ethnic groups in Ethiopia want larger families than dominant groups—but don't necessarily act on those desires. The finding could reshape how policymakers approach population growth and resource allocation in conflict-affected regions across Africa and beyond.
Originaltitel: Yearning for a Bigger Population? The Relevance of Ethnic Minority Status for Fertility in Ethiopia
Ethnic conflicts comprise a major share of armed conflicts worldwide. This study examines how ethnic minority status is related to fertility preferences in the context of protracted ethnonationalist conflicts of Ethiopia. We draw on the ethnic minority status hypothesis and combine data from the Demographic Health Surveys, the Ethnic Power Relations dataset, and the Afrobarometer. We find a diverging pattern in fertility preferences among politically discriminated ethnic groups, whereby the generally pronatalist preferences coincide with a slight tendency towards lower fertility preferences compared to those from politically dominant groups. This pattern becomes less clear when fertility preferences are compared by perceived discrimination instead of political exclusion, highlighting the importance of paying attention to different measures of ethnic minority status. Further, our findings suggest that the pronatalist ideals among politically discriminated groups for larger families is not strongly contingent on life-course stage, whereas desires to have more children soon become more salient as family formation progresses. This study offers a novel perspective on demographic processes during ethnic conflicts. Our study adds to understanding the structural determinants of fertility preferences and ethnic fertility differentials, by testing the minority status hypothesis in a conflict-affected, ethnically diverse setting.